Races · Governor · 2026 · NM
Governor · open seat
New Mexico Governor
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
Verified Safe D · model 71% D · market gap 19pp
safe-d · high-tipping · market-disagreement-medium
Forecast · poliagg-v8
Predicted final margin
D +7.7
80% CI: R +9.8 → D +25.2 · win prob 71%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 181 |
| Residual σ | 13.66pt |
| Generated | 5/6/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +7.4
80% CI R +31.3 → D +17.3
CV MAE 7.21
poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)
D +7.7
80% CI R +9.8 → D +25.2
CV MAE 13.66
Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater
3 raters| Rater | Rating | Updated | Poll D-marg. | Rater marg. | Δ poll−rater |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | Likely D | Sep 11 | — | +9.0 | — |
| Inside Elections | Likely D | Aug 28 | — | +9.0 | — |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Likely D | Sep 4 | — | +9.0 | — |
Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.
last poll — last market quote 4 days ago rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
- 5/3/2026 Safe D via markets