Races · Governor · 2026 · New Mexico
Governor · open seat
Deb Haaland vs Gregg Hull
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedTilt D · model 87% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+3) suggests Tilt D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+9.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+1.1 (10th pctile) to D+20.8 (90th pctile), giving D a 87% chance of winning.
This race was decisive in 15.1% of chamber-control simulations — one of the most consequential seats this cycle.
Uncertainty score: 84/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (22.0pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · tilt-d · high-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
84
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width73
22.0pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution73 / 100
Measured22.0pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement22
4.5pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution22 / 100
Measured4.5pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +9.8
80% CI: R +1.1 → D +20.8 · win prob 87%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 8.57pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +5.4
80% CI R +14.4 → D +17.0
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
D +12.1
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 90¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
Endorsements · 37 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet36
1
Endorsements tracked
Deb Haaland36 · 97%
Gregg Hull1 · 3%
Total37
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DDeb Haaland36 endorsers
Most notable · Reena Szczepanski · House majority leader (2025–present) from the 47th district (2023–present)
Elected officials17
Federal 9State 5Local 1
Elected officials · 17
- Reena Szczepanski · House majority leader (2025–present) from the 47th district (2023–present)
- Stacey Abrams · former House minority leader (2011–2017) from Georgia 's 89th district (2007–2017)
- Javier Martínez · speaker of the House (2023–present) from the 11th district (2015–present)
- Angel Charley · state senator from the 30th district (2025–present)
- Martin Chávez · former state senator from the 26th district (1987–1993)
- Shannon Pinto · state senator from the 3rd district (2019–present)
- Tom Udall · former U.S. ambassador to New Zealand (2021–2025) and Samoa (2022–2025) and U.S. senator from New Mexico (2009–2021)
- Gabe Vasquez · NM-2 (2023–present)
- Melanie Stansbury · NM-1 (2021–present)
- Teresa Leger Fernandez · NM-3 (2021–present)
- Ben Ray Luján · New Mexico (2021–present)
- Charlotte Little · state representative from the 68th district (2023–present)
- Eric Swalwell · former CA-14 (2013–2026) (rejected by candidate)
- Lynn Trujillo · senior counsel to the U.S. secretary of the interior (2023–2025)
- Michael Garcia · mayor of Santa Fe (2025–present)
- Michelle Paulene Abeyta · state representative from the 69th district (2025–present)
- Pete Buttigieg · former U.S. secretary of transportation (2021–2025)
Organizations15
Organizations · 15
- American Federation of Teachers · New Mexico
- Communications Workers of America · Local 7076
- Conservation Voters · New Mexico
- EMILY's List
- Elect Democratic Women
- End Citizens United
- Equality New Mexico
- Jane Fonda Climate PAC
- Jemez Pueblo
- New Mexico Working Families Party
- Picuris Pueblo
- Planned Parenthood · New Mexico
- SEIU · Committee of Interns and Residents
- Santo Domingo Pueblo
- Zuni Pueblo
Celebrity3
Celebrity · 3
- Jonathan Nez · former president of the Navajo Nation (2019–2023)
- Dolores Huerta · labor leader
- Patricia Michaels · fashion designer
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- The Santa Fe New Mexican
RGregg Hull1 endorser
Most notable · The Santa Fe New Mexican
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- The Santa Fe New Mexican
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely D4
Likely D · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · May 20
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- RealClearPolitics · Jun 4
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 1
Cook Political Report
Likely DInside Elections
Likely DRealClearPolitics
Likely DSabato's Crystal Ball
Likely DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
42 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles42
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.14
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.01 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.14
Week-over-weekshift +0.01 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 14%
Neutral 86%
14% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets14%
Neutral86%
R-leaning outlets0%
14% of outlets classified by editorial lean
A
Greggory Hull wins Republican nomination for governor in New Mexico
L
Dannemann: Gregg Hull Doesn’t Trust New Mexico Elections
A
Haaland holds 7-to-1 cash edge over Hull in governor's race
S
Democratic gubernatorial candidate Haaland outraises Hull 2-1 in month following primary election
A
Gregg Hull: Rio Rancho’s success story for all of New Mexico
A
Deb Haaland takes commanding lead in latest New Mexico gov. primary race poll
S
To have a shot, Hull can't consort with Trump
N
New Mexico Governor Election 2026: Latest Polls
K
Eight independent or minor party candidates fail to qualify for November New Mexico election ballot
N
New Mexico Labor Unions Endorse Deb Haaland for Governor
Page 1 of 4
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements49 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks