Races · Governor · 2026 · IL
Governor · open seat

JB Pritzker vs Darren Bailey

← ID Governor KS Governor →
Safe D D +20.0 · 176 days to election · 1 polls · 4 markets Last poll 167d ago Markets 4d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 1 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Safe D · model 89% D

safe-d · high-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v8
Predicted final margin
D +17.4
80% CI: R +0.1 → D +34.9 · win prob 89%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used1
Days to election181
Residual σ13.66pt
Generated5/6/2026
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +15.1
80% CI D +8.8 → D +19.6
CV MAE 7.21
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +20.0
80% CI D +16.3 → D +23.7
CV MAE 2.90
poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)
D +17.4
80% CI R +0.1 → D +34.9
CV MAE 13.66

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
|Toggle:

All polls · 1 results

1 of 1 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
11/24/2025Victory Research0.81—(D+1.2)1208±2.8LV
3 scored polls167d old+3
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 167d old
    Poll was fielded 167 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 7 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
JB Pritzker 54.0 · Darren Bailey 34.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 31 total
Darren Bailey (R)
21 endorsements · source
Elected officials (2)
  • Jeanne Ives — former state representative from the 54th district (2013–2019) [ 29 ]
  • Tom Morrison — former state representative from the 54th district (2011–2023) [ 29 ]
Newspapers (2)
  • Chicago Tribune — [ 33 ]
  • Daily Herald — [ 32 ]
Other (17)
  • 30 — 40%
  • 40 — 50%
  • 50 — 60%
  • 60 — 70%
  • 70 — 80%
  • 80 — 90%
  • 90 — 100%
  • Aaron Del Mar
  • Carrie Mendoza
  • Christina Neitzke — Troike
  • Darren Bailey
  • DuPage County — ormer DuPage County Auditor (2008–2020) [ 29 ]
  • James Mendrick
  • Rick Heidner
  • Robert Renteria
  • Ted Dabrowski
  • [ 29 ] — ty sheriffs [ 29 ]
JB Pritzker (D)
10 endorsements · source
Organizations / unions (3)
  • AFL-CIO — s AFL-CIO [ 9 ]
  • Cook County Democratic Party — [ 14 ]
  • International Union of Operating Engineers — Locals 150 and 399 [ 10 ] [ 11 ]
Other (7)
  • Christian Mitchell
  • Equality Illinois — [ 15 ]
  • Giffords — [ 16 ]
  • JB Pritzker — (incumbent)
  • New Trier — Democrats [ 17 ]
  • SEIU — Heathcare [ 12 ]
  • The Chicago Crusader — [ 18 ]

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Safe D Sep 11 +20.0 +18.0 +2.0
Inside Elections Safe D Aug 28 +20.0 +18.0 +2.0
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe D Sep 4 +20.0 +18.0 +2.0

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 6 months ago (11/24/2025) last market quote 4 days ago rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
  • 5/3/2026 Safe D D+20.0 via polls

In the news

News links surfaced via GDELT (a multi-source global news index). External links open in a new tab; we don't rehost article content.