Pollster · 370 of 1769
Change Research/CNBC
Polls scored
3
Mean error
3.6 pt
Signed bias
D+3.57
Aggregation weight
0.79
Composite quality score
0–100 · weighted of 5 measured components68
of 100 · tier · strong
Strong on the components we measure; one or two areas pull the composite below the elite threshold.
Pollster vs editorial consensus
alignedAcross 9 graded races, Change Research/CNBC's released topline differed from the median editorial-rater consensus by an average of +1.1pp. That's well-aligned with the consensus — useful as a sanity check, less useful as a contrarian signal.
Mean delta
+1.1pp
Median delta
+0.0pp
Std-dev
2.4pp
N graded
9
Sample races (links to detail):
us-senate-special-2020-azus-senate-special-2020-azus-senate-special-2020-azRecent activity
Total all time
29
Last 30d
0
Last 90d
0
Last 180d
0
Per-cycle debrief appearances
| Cycle | Rank | Polls | MAE | Signed bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | #9 / 20 | 6 | 5.07 pt | D+5.07 pp |
Recent polls
- 10/31/2020Arizona · Senate (special) · 2020Martha McSally 47.0 · Mark Kelly 51.0
- 10/31/2020Michigan · Senate · 2020Gary Peters 51.0 · John James 46.0
- 10/31/2020North Carolina · Senate · 2020Thom Tillis 46.0 · Cal Cunningham 50.0
- 10/18/2020Arizona · Senate (special) · 2020Martha McSally 43.0 · Mark Kelly 54.0
- 10/18/2020Michigan · Senate · 2020Gary Peters 50.0 · John James 45.0
- 10/18/2020North Carolina · Senate · 2020Thom Tillis 45.0 · Cal Cunningham 51.0
- 10/3/2020Arizona · Senate (special) · 2020Martha McSally 43.0 · Mark Kelly 51.0
- 10/3/2020Michigan · Senate · 2020Gary Peters 51.0 · John James 43.0
- 10/3/2020North Carolina · Senate · 2020Thom Tillis 46.0 · Cal Cunningham 50.0
- 9/19/2020Arizona · Senate (special) · 2020Martha McSally 43.0 · Mark Kelly 51.0