Maryland and South Carolina governor races each downgraded one rating tier.

Maryland Governor: safe-D → likely-D. The two polls available in the current Maryland governor cycle both come from Gonzales Research for Maryland Matters. A December 2025 survey (n=808, ±3.5pp, RV, sponsored by Maryland Matters) placed Gov. Wes Moore at 50%.^[1] A December 2024 poll from the same firm (n=811, ±3.5pp, RV) showed Moore at 52% against former Gov. Larry Hogan at 38%.^[2] Prediction markets currently price a Democratic party win at 0.9505 (Polymarket)^[3] and Wes Moore personally at 0.908 (Kalshi).^[4] The model point forecast is D+23.0, with a Democratic win probability of 0.99.

South Carolina Governor: safe-R → likely-R. No public polls are available in the current South Carolina governor cycle. Prediction markets price a Republican party win at 0.92 (Polymarket)^[5] and Alan Wilson personally at 0.901 (Kalshi).^[6] Democratic candidate Jermaine Johnson is priced at 0.10 on Kalshi.^[6] The model point forecast is R+22.7 with a Democratic win probability of 0.01. The Republican field includes Alan Wilson, Pamela Evette, Ralph Norman, Nancy Mace, Josh Kimbrell, and Rom Reddy; the Democratic field includes Jermaine Johnson, Mullins McLeod, and Billy Webster.

Virginia Senate 2026: First Polling Wave. A batch of polls from The Public Sentiment Institute/Virginia Project (n=1,047, ±3.7pp, LV, fieldEnd May 5, 2026, sponsored by Virginia Project, a Republican-aligned organization) gives the first structured look at the Virginia 2026 Senate field.^[7][8] In three separate matchup tests against Republican candidates, Sen. Mark Warner polled at 54% against Kim Farington (R, 29%) with independent Mark Moran at 2%;^[7] 55% against Bert Mizusawa (R, 29%) with Moran at 3%;^[7] and 54% against David Williams (R, 29%) with Moran at 3%.^[8] All three matchups show Republican candidates clustered at 29 percentage points. Prediction markets price a Democratic winner at 0.935 (Polymarket).^[14] The current model consensus margin is D+26.0, with a Democratic win probability of 0.9257.

Texas Senate 2026: Tight Race with Heavy June Polling. The Texas Senate race (rated tilt-D on an aggregate polling margin of D+0.71) has drawn five polls during June 2026. The two most recent polls from the University of Texas/Texas Politics Project (n=1,200, ±2.8pp, RV) fielded June 12–23 show Ken Paxton (R) and James Talarico (D) within one point of each other: Paxton 43%, Talarico 42% (June 23)^[9] and Paxton 43%, Talarico 42% (June 12).^[11] An R-aligned internal poll from SoCal Strategies (n=800, no MOE reported, LV, June 21) showed Paxton 49%, Talarico 47%.^[10] The Texas Pulse Poll (n=807, ±4.0pp, LV, June 9) showed Talarico 47%, Paxton 44%.^[12] Quantus Insights (n=800, ±3.5pp, LV, June 5) showed Paxton 45%, Talarico 43%.^[13] Prediction markets price Paxton (R) to win at 0.565 (Polymarket)^[15] and 0.60 (Kalshi).^[16]

Midterm Approval Context. The rating adjustments in Maryland and South Carolina, and the competitive polling environment in Texas, occur within the broader midterm cycle. Presidential approval surveys are a standard macrocontext input for cycle-level seat forecasts; as additional approval data enters the aggregator in coming weeks, it will provide further context for interpreting state-level rating movements.