Texas Senate race tightens as Paxton-Talarico fight begins amid Trump's record-low approval.

Texas Senate. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn 64% to 36% in the May 26 GOP runoff, and the National Republican Senatorial Committee filed paperwork on June 1 to set up a joint fundraising committee with Paxton — the same committee that had spent against him during the primary.^[4][5] A Texas Public Opinion Research poll fielded through May 28 (n=1,670, ±2.4pp) gave Democratic state Sen. James Talarico 47% to Paxton's 44% among likely voters.^[6] A Public Policy Polling survey of registered voters fielded through May 23 (n=643, Democratic-leaning pollster) showed Talarico 45%, Paxton 38%.^[7] Texas Southern University split-sample matchups fielded through May 6 (n=1,223, ±2.8pp) had Talarico tied with Paxton at 45% and Talarico 44% to Cornyn 45%.^[8] Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the race from "Likely R" to "Leans R" after the runoff.^[5]

Market reaction. Prediction markets shifted toward Republicans after the runoff. Polymarket's yes-price on a Republican Texas Senate win rose from 0.545 on May 26 to 0.605 on June 2, while the Democratic contract fell from 0.461 to 0.395 over the same span.^[9] The pipeline's current polling average has Talarico ahead by roughly 3.5 points, and the race is rated lean-d from polling, while market consensus implies a 60.5% Republican win probability.^[10]

Candidate-baggage storyline. CNN reports that several of the most competitive 2026 Senate races feature candidates with personal controversies, naming Paxton in Texas and Graham Platner, the presumptive Maine Democratic nominee.^[2] The Associated Press reported on May 31 that Platner's wife responded publicly to reports that her husband had exchanged sexually explicit text messages with multiple women.^[11] Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) said on ABC's "This Week" that Platner "has questions to answer."^[12] Paxton was impeached by the Texas state House in 2023 on bribery and corruption charges and acquitted by the state Senate; he denied wrongdoing.^[13]

Trump approval. Big Data Poll's May survey put President Trump's approval at 39.4% with 57.4% disapproval, the lowest reading the firm has recorded for him; its stated margin of error is ±1.8pp for registered voters and ±1.7pp for likely voters.^[3] A YouGov/Economist poll published the prior week recorded 34% approval, the lowest in that survey across both Trump terms.^[15] A New York Times poll measured 38% approval, and the Los Angeles Times reported a top-tier poll at 34%.^[16] On cost of living, a New York Times/Siena poll cited by The Guardian found Trump's approval underwater by 42 points.^[17]

• Texas Senate forecast margin: R+2.3, race rated lean-d from polling (64 polls in database).^[10]
• Virginia Senate forecast margin: D+9.6, rated safe-d.^[10]
• Iowa Governor forecast margin: R+11.6, rated likely-d based on three recent polls.^[10]
• South Dakota and Oklahoma governor races rated safe-r, with market-implied GOP win probabilities of 91.0% and 86.0% respectively on Polymarket.^[10]