Races · Senate · 2026 · Rhode Island
Senate · class II · open seat
Jack Reed vs Raymond McKay
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe D · model 99% D
Polling average rates this race Safe D (D+17.5, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+21.5 with an 80% CI ranging from D+11.2 (10th pctile) to D+31.8 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 4.5% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Polling has been stable (stable) over the 90d window.
Uncertainty score: 52/100 (medium). Polls and forecasts agree at a moderate level.
CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping · stable · uncertainty-medium
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
53
Medium uncertainty
Main driver: wide forecast CI (20.5pp).
Forecast CI width68
20.5pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution68 / 100
Measured20.5pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement18
3.6pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution18 / 100
Measured3.6pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Pollster dispersion0
0.0pp cross-pollster spread
Pollster dispersion
Contribution0 / 100
Measured0.0pp cross-pollster spread
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity75
2 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution75 / 100
Measured2 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +21.5
80% CI: D +11.2 → D +31.8 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 4 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 8.01pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +19.3
80% CI D +14.6 → D +20.4
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +17.9
80% CI D +15.7 → D +20.1
CV MAE 1.74
consensusMarket-implied
D +16.1
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 95¢3 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 43 points more bullish on D than polling. Markets 95% · polls 52%.
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democrats win the Rhode Island Senate race in 2026?” | 94¢ | 5¢ | +0¢ | — | -1 |
| Predictit “Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Rhode Is…” | 97¢ | 3¢ | +0¢ | — | +2 |
| Kalshi “Rhode Island Senate winner?” | 93¢ | 6¢ | +0¢ | $0K | -1 |
Predictit sits 2¢ above consensus.
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
1 polls · through Jun 23, 2026 · latest University of New Hampshire
Jack Reed
VoteHub52.0%
VoteHub
Polling average52.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg52.1%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average52.1%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.1 pt below our average
Raymond McKay
VoteHub34.0%
VoteHub
Polling average34.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg34.9%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average34.9%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.9 pt below our average
VoteHub's independent average across 1 polls (through Jun 23, 2026): Jack Reed 52.0%, Raymond McKay 34.0%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 4 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 29 | Univ. of New Hampshire | 664 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +1.4aligned | 52 · 35 |
| Jun 22 | University of New HampshireFor · University of New Hampshire | 664 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +0.912 tracked | +0.3aligned | 52 · 35 |
| Apr 22 | Univ. of New Hampshire+1 | 559 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +1.4aligned | 52 · 34 |
| Apr 19 | University of New Hampshire+1For · University of New Hampshire | 556 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +0.912 tracked | +0.3aligned | 52 · 34 |
Endorsements · 8 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet8
Endorsements tracked
Jack Reed8 · 100%
Raymond McKay0 · 0%
Total8
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DJack Reed8 endorsers
Most notable · Association of Flight Attendants
Organizations8
Organizations · 8
- Association of Flight Attendants
- J Street
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- League of Conservation Voters
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Population Connection
- Vote Vets
RRaymond McKay0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —Jack Reed
Receipts
$2.6M
Disburse
$761.3K
Cash on hand
$3.4M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$17.5K
Lawyers / law firms · $17.5K
- Clifford Law Offices · $17.5K
Individuals $17.5K · PACs $0
Real estate$10.0K
Real estate · $10.0K
- Picerne Real Estate Group · $10.0K
Individuals $10.0K · PACs $0
Top contributors
EO SOLUTIONS$28.0K
CLIFFORD LAW OFFICES$17.5K
BROWNSTEIN HYATT FARBER SCHRECK$14.8K
COONEY AND CONWAY$10.5K
PICERNE REAL ESTATE GROUP$10.0K
Raymond McKay
Receipts
$139.9K
Disburse
$127.8K
Cash on hand
$12.4K
Debts
$689.51
Top industries
Oil & gas$500
Oil & gas · $500
- Alan J Dlugash LLC · $500
Individuals $500 · PACs $0
Real estate$500
Real estate · $500
- Real Estate · $500
Individuals $500 · PACs $0
Govt employees$500
Govt employees · $500
- Department of Veterans Affairs · $500
Individuals $500 · PACs $0
Top contributors
MOHAWK NORTHEAST INC$1.0K
AIR CONDITIONING SVCS$577.06
ALAN J DLUGASH LLC$500
REAL ESTATE$500
DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS$500
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D5
Safe D · 5 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Apr 12
- The Economist · May 21
- Inside Elections · Apr 22
- RealClearPolitics · May 18
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Mar 3
The Cook Political Report
Safe DThe Economist
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DRealClearPolitics
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified4 / 4deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested3 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements8 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks