Races · Senate · 2026 · RI
Senate · class II · open seat

Jack Reed vs Raymond McKay

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Safe D D +18.0 · 176 days to election · 1 polls · 4 markets Last poll 20d ago Markets 4d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 1 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Safe D · model 95% D

safe-d · uncertainty-high
Forecast · poliagg-v8
Predicted final margin
D +22.3
80% CI: D +4.8 → D +39.9 · win prob 95%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used1
Days to election181
Residual σ13.66pt
Generated5/6/2026
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +18.2
80% CI D +18.0 → D +22.6
CV MAE 7.21
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +19.0
80% CI D +14.5 → D +23.5
CV MAE 3.51
poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)
D +22.3
80% CI D +4.8 → D +39.9
CV MAE 13.66

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
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All polls · 1 results

1 of 1 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
4/20/2026University of New Hampshire1.00—(R+0.9)556±4.0LV
high variance vs editorial consensus✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias R+0.9pt
    Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.
Jack Reed 52.0 · Raymond McKay 34.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 8 total
Jack Reed (D)
8 endorsements · source
Organizations / unions (5)
  • Association of Flight Attendants — [ 5 ]
  • Jewish Democratic Council of America — [ 7 ]
  • Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs — [ 8 ]
  • League of Conservation Voters — [ 9 ]
  • Planned Parenthood Action Fund — [ 10 ]
Other (3)
  • J Street — [ 6 ]
  • Population Connection — [ 11 ]
  • Vote Vets — [ 12 ]

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Safe D Oct 14 +18.0 +18.0 0.0
Inside Elections Safe D Aug 12 +18.0 +18.0 0.0
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe D Aug 12 +18.0 +18.0 0.0

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 3 weeks ago (4/20/2026) last market quote 4 days ago rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
  • 5/3/2026 Safe D D+18.0 via polls

In the news

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