Democratic primary · September 9, 2026
Rhode Island Senate Democratic primary
Field of 1 Democratic candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Democratic primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
57
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (12.0pp).
Forecast CI width40
12.0pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution40 / 100
Measured12.0pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity75
2 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution75 / 100
Measured2 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Democratic primary
primary-struct-v1 · high confidence · 4 polls + fundamentals1Jack ReedJack Reed ( Democratic Party ) is a member of the U.S. Senate from Rhode Island. He assumed office on January 3, 1997. His current term ends…
2Connor Burbridge
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 4 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Reed | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 29 | Univ. of New Hampshire | 337 · LV | 63 | — |
| Jun 22 | University of New Hampshire | 337 · LV | 63 | — |
| Apr 22 | Univ. of New Hampshire | 328 · LV | 65 | — |
| Apr 19 | University of New Hampshire | 323 · LV | 65 | — |
Endorsements · Democratic primary · 8 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yetJack Reed · 8
DJack Reed8 endorsers
Most notable · Association of Flight Attendants
Organizations8
Organizations · 8
- Association of Flight Attendants
- J Street
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- League of Conservation Voters
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Population Connection
- Vote Vets
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing —No FEC committee filings yet for the Democratic primary candidates. Most primary candidates file quarterly; if the primary is recent the data may take a few weeks to appear.
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 4deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested3 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements8 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks