Races · Senate · 2026 · Louisiana
Senate · class II · open seat
Louisiana Senate
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+12) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+23.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+33.8 (10th pctile) to R+13.2 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
This race was decisive in 10.4% of chamber-control simulations — one of the most consequential seats this cycle.
Uncertainty score: 80/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (20.5pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · likely-r · high-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
80
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width68
20.5pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution68 / 100
Measured20.5pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement12
2.4pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution12 / 100
Measured2.4pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +23.5
80% CI: R +33.8 → R +13.2 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 8.01pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +25.9
80% CI R +32.7 → R +18.0
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +14.6
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 7¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
Endorsements · 4 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet4
Endorsements tracked
Democrat0 · 0%
John Fleming4 · 100%
Total4
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RJohn Fleming4 endorsers
Most notable · Elbert Guillory · former state senator from the 24th district (2009–2016)
Elected officials4
Federal 3State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 4
- Elbert Guillory · former state senator from the 24th district (2009–2016)
- Paul Gosar · AZ-09 (2011–present)
- Scott Perry · PA-10 (2013–present)
- Marlin Stutzman · IN-03 (2010–2017, 2025–present)
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-29John FlemingS6LA00318 ↗
No FEC committee filing yet.
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$719.4K
D side
$700.0K · 97%
R side
$19.4K · 3%
Top spender
CONSERVATIVES FOR A…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CONSERVATIVES FOR A BETTER TOMORROW INC. other · boosts D
| D | $700.0K | 97% | against John Fleming |
| RED BAYOU PAC other · boosts R
| R | $14.0K | 2% | for John Fleming |
| Lundy other · boosts R
| R | $5.4K | 1% | for John Fleming |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely R1
Likely R · 1 rater
- The Economist · May 21
Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Apr 12
- Inside Elections · Apr 22
- RealClearPolitics · May 18
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Mar 3
The Cook Political Report
Safe RThe Economist
Likely RInside Elections
Safe RRealClearPolitics
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
13 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
13 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles13
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.23
Coverage lean (D−R) · first week of data
Net favorability
Score+0.23
Week-over-weekfirst week of data
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 23%
Neutral 77%
23% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets23%
Neutral77%
R-leaning outlets0%
23% of outlets classified by editorial lean
W
Letlow, Davis advance in Louisiana’s U.S. Senate race
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Polls open for Louisiana runoff election | Everything you need to know
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Live results: Letlow, Fleming duke it out in Louisiana Senate runoff after Cassidy primary ouster
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Louisiana Senate Primary Runoff Election 2026 Live Results
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Louisiana U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls
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How to vote in Louisiana's closed party primary Senate election
R
June 27, 2026: Louisiana Democratic Senate nominee Elections Prediction Market
N
Attack ad barrage, slim turnout: Louisiana Senate race has Letlow, Fleming down to the wire
N
Louisiana Fifth Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
W
Voter guide: Louisiana's June 27 primary runoff election
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Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-29
Endorsements33 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage13 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks