Republican primary · May 16, 2026
Louisiana Senate Republican primary
Field of 6 Republican candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Republican primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
76
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (15.3pp).
Forecast CI width51
15.3pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution51 / 100
Measured15.3pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Republican primary
primary-struct-v1 · high confidence · 8 polls + fundamentals1Julia LetlowJulia Letlow ( Republican Party ) is a member of the U.S. House , representing Louisiana's 5th Congressional District . She assumed office o…
2Bill CassidyWilliam Morgan Cassidy (born September 28, 1957) is an American politician and physician who is the senior United States senator from Louisi…
3John FlemingJohn Calvin Fleming Jr. (born July 5, 1951) is an American politician, physician, and former naval officer serving as Treasurer of Louisiana…
4Mark SpencerMark Spencer ( Republican Party ) ran for election to the U.S. Senate to represent Louisiana. Spencer lost in the Republican primary on May …
All polls · 26 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Fleming | Cassidy | Letlow | Spencer | Miguez | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 7, 26 | Quantus Insights | 1,015 · LV | 30 | 20 | 42 | — | — | +12 |
| May 6, 26 | Quantus Insights | 1,015 · LV | 30 | 20 | 42 | 2 | — | +12 |
| May 4, 26 | Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | 600 · LV | 21 | 26 | 32 | 1 | — | +6 |
| Apr 29, 26 | BDPC | 600 · LV | 21 | 21 | 33 | 2 | — | +12 |
| Apr 29, 26 | Emerson College | 500 · LV | 28 | 21 | 27 | 2 | — | +1 |
| Apr 25, 26 | Emerson College | 500 · LV | 28 | 21 | 27 | 2 | — | +1 |
| Mar 24, 26 | American Pulse | 455 · LV | 25 | 21 | 31 | — | — | +6 |
| Mar 23, 26 | American Pulse Research & Polling | 455 · LV | 25 | 21 | 31 | — | — | +6 |
| Mar 18, 26 | Harris, DeVille & Associates | 683 · LV | 21 | 45 | 34 | — | — | +11 |
| Mar 16, 26 | BDPC | 600 · LV | 24 | 20 | 29 | — | — | +5 |
Endorsements · Republican primary · 33 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetJulia Letlow · 18Bill Cassidy · 10John Fleming · 4Blake Miguez · 1
RJulia Letlow18 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials16
Federal 11State 2Local 0
Elected officials · 16
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Jeremy Stine · Senate majority leader (2024–present) from the 27th district (2022–present)
- Steve Scalise · House majority leader (2023–present) from LA-01 (2008–present)
- Phillip DeVillier · speaker of the House (2024–present) from the 41st district (2016–present)
- Jeff Landry · governor of Louisiana (2024–present) and special envoy to Greenland (2025–present)
- Liz Murrill · attorney general of Louisiana (2024–present)
- Clay Higgins · LA-03 (2017–present)
- Bernie Moreno · Ohio (2025–present)
- Cameron Henry · president of the Senate (2024–present) from the 9th district (2020–present)
- Jim Banks · Indiana (2025–present)
- Katie Britt · Alabama (2023–present)
- Rick Scott · Florida (2019–present)
- St. Tammany Parish · Tammany Parish councilor and former candidate for this seat
- Tim Sheehy · Montana (2025–present)
- state representatives · entatives
- state senators · senators
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Maggie's List
Other1
Other · 1
- Eric Skrmetta · member of the Louisiana Public Service Commission from the 1st district (2009–present) and former candidate for this seat
RBill Cassidy10 endorsers
Most notable · John Barrasso · Senate majority whip (2025–present) from Wyoming (2007–present)
Elected officials5
Federal 3State 2Local 0
Elected officials · 5
- John Barrasso · Senate majority whip (2025–present) from Wyoming (2007–present)
- John Thune · Senate majority leader (2025–present) from South Dakota (2005–present)
- Beth Mizell · state senator from the 12th district (2016–present)
- Patrick Connick · state senator from the 8th district (2020–present)
- Tim Scott · South Carolina (2013–present)
Organizations3
Organizations · 3
- AIPAC
- National Republican Senatorial Committee
- Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America
Celebrity2
Celebrity · 2
- Drew Brees · former New Orleans Saints player
- Eddie Rispone · businessman and 2019 gubernatorial candidate
RJohn Fleming4 endorsers
Most notable · Elbert Guillory · former state senator from the 24th district (2009–2016)
Elected officials4
Federal 3State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 4
- Elbert Guillory · former state senator from the 24th district (2009–2016)
- Paul Gosar · AZ-09 (2011–present)
- Scott Perry · PA-10 (2013–present)
- Marlin Stutzman · IN-03 (2010–2017, 2025–present)
RBlake Miguez1 endorser
Most notable · Roger Wilder · state representative from the 71st district (2024–present)
Elected officials1
Federal 0State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Roger Wilder · state representative from the 71st district (2024–present)
RMark Spencer0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
REric Skrmetta0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing 2026-06-29Bill CassidyS4LA00107 ↗
Raised
$6.73M
Cash on hand
$5.52M
Top industries
Securities & investment$28K
Securities & investment · $28K
- Blackstone · $28K
Individuals $28K · PACs $0
Health professionals$22K
Health professionals · $22K
- Hospital for Special Surgery · $22K
Individuals $22K · PACs $0
Pharma / health products$21K
Pharma / health products · $21K
- Crinetics Pharmaceuticals · $21K
Individuals $21K · PACs $0
In the news
13 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
13 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles13
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.23
Coverage lean (D−R) · first week of data
Net favorability
Score+0.23
Week-over-weekfirst week of data
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 23%
Neutral 77%
23% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets23%
Neutral77%
R-leaning outlets0%
23% of outlets classified by editorial lean
W
Letlow, Davis advance in Louisiana’s U.S. Senate race
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Polls open for Louisiana runoff election | Everything you need to know
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Live results: Letlow, Fleming duke it out in Louisiana Senate runoff after Cassidy primary ouster
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Louisiana Senate Primary Runoff Election 2026 Live Results
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Louisiana U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls
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How to vote in Louisiana's closed party primary Senate election
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June 27, 2026: Louisiana Democratic Senate nominee Elections Prediction Market
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Attack ad barrage, slim turnout: Louisiana Senate race has Letlow, Fleming down to the wire
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Louisiana Fifth Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
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Voter guide: Louisiana's June 27 primary runoff election
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Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 26deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-29
Endorsements33 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage13 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks