Races · house · 2026 · Wisconsin
house · open seat
Brad Smith vs Glenn Grothman
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe R · model 94% R
Polling average rates this race Safe R (R+22.0, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+19.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+35.6 (10th pctile) to R+3.5 (90th pctile), giving R a 94% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 85/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · safe-r · low-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
85
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement30
6.0pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution30 / 100
Measured6.0pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity88
1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution88 / 100
Measured1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +19.5
80% CI: R +35.6 → R +3.5 · win prob 6%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 4 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +25.5
80% CI R +37.5 → R +17.2
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +22.0
80% CI R +26.9 → R +17.1
CV MAE 3.86
consensusMarket-implied
R +10.3
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 14¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 26 points less bullish on D than polling. Markets 14% · polls 39%.
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the WI-06 House seat?” | 14¢ | 85¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
All polls · 4 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 27 | Tavern Research+1For · Internal D-aligned | 437 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +6.6decoupled | 39 · 61 |
| May 27 | Tavern Research+1For · Internal D-aligned | 437 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +6.6decoupled | 55 |
| May 27 | Tavern Research+1For · Internal D-aligned | 437 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +6.6decoupled | 61 |
| Mar 19 | Change Research+2For · Internal D-aligned | 640 · LV | D-LEAN | D +3.718 tracked | +5.7noisy | 42 |
Endorsements · 2 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetIMichael Thurow2 endorsers
Most notable · Dan Osborn · independent candidate for U.S. Senate in Nebraska in 2024 and former president of Bakery, Confectionery, Tobacco Workers and Grain Millers' International Union
Celebrity2
Celebrity · 2
- Dan Osborn · independent candidate for U.S. Senate in Nebraska in 2024 and former president of Bakery, Confectionery, Tobacco Workers and Grain Millers' International Union
- Forward Party
RGlenn Grothman0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DBrad Smith0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —Glenn Grothman
Receipts
$634.5K
Disburse
$456.7K
Cash on hand
$700.3K
Debts
$139.1K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Brad Smith
Receipts
$81.3K
Disburse
$28.1K
Cash on hand
$53.2K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Michael Thurow
Receipts
$50.7K
Disburse
$26.2K
Cash on hand
$24.5K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
7 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
7 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles7
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.57
Coverage lean (D−R) · first week of data
Net favorability
Score+0.57
Week-over-weekfirst week of data
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 57%
Neutral 43%
57% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets57%
Neutral43%
R-leaning outlets0%
57% of outlets classified by editorial lean
N
Who Is Ahead in Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District?
N
Who Is Ahead in Wisconsin's 7th Congressional District?
N
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Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified4 / 4deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements3 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage7 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks