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Races · house · 2026 · Texas
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house · open seat

Claire Reynolds vs August Pfluger

← Texas houseTexas house →
Safe RR +35.0 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today
Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
1% Reynolds (D)
99% Pfluger (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted final margin R +35.0 · 80% CI R+51.1 → R+18.9 · 3 months 27 days to election
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
3.7%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
D 7¢
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+22) suggests Safe R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+35.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+51.1 (10th pctile) to R+18.9 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · safe-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +35.0
80% CI: R +51.1 → R +18.9 · win prob 1%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to election118
Residual σ12.56pt
Generated7/7/2026
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +45.7
80% CI R +61.1 → R +38.7
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +14.8
no interval
market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 7¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
0¢5¢10¢15¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7
Per-platform · current
PlatformD YESR YES7d ΔVolvs cons
Polymarket
“Will the Republican Party win the TX-11 House seat?”
7¢93¢+1¢—+0

Endorsements · 5 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet
2Reynolds · 40%
Pfluger · 60%3
RAugust Pfluger3 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials2
Federal 1State 1Local 0
Organizations1
DClaire Reynolds2 endorsers
Most notable · The Austin Chronicle
Newspapers1
Other1

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-03-11
August PflugerH0TX11230 ↗
Receipts
$2.6M
Disburse
$2.2M
Cash on hand
$2.8M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Claire ReynoldsOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$42.2K
Disburse
$31.2K
Cash on hand
$11.0K
Debts
$3.3K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$53.71
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$53.71 · 100%
Top spender
TEXAS ALLIANCE FOR …
For / against split
For Pfluger $53.71
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
TEXAS ALLIANCE FOR LIFE FED PACR$53.71100%for August Pfluger

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R4
Cook Political Report
Safe R
Jun 17
Inside Elections
Safe R
Jun 24
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Jun 8
Split Ticket
Safe R
Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 5, 2026Safe Rmodel
May 3, 2026Likely Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-03-11
Endorsements5 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks