Races · house · 2026 · Tennessee
house · open seat
Chaz Molder vs Andy Ogles
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 92% R
Polling average rates this race Likely R (R+6.0, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+17.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+33.7 (10th pctile) to R+1.5 (90th pctile), giving R a 92% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 98/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
98
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement82
16.5pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution82 / 100
Measured16.5pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity88
1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution88 / 100
Measured1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +17.6
80% CI: R +33.7 → R +1.5 · win prob 8%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 1 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +22.5
80% CI R +29.5 → R +16.7
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +6.0
80% CI R +10.5 → R +1.5
CV MAE 3.54
consensusMarket-implied
R +6.3
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 25¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 17 points less bullish on D than polling. Markets 25% · polls 41%.
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the TN-05 House seat?” | 25¢ | 74¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
All polls · 1 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 12 | Impact Research+1For · Internal D-aligned | 558 · LV | D-LEAN | — | +10.7d lean | 41 · 47 |
Endorsements · 6 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet5
1
Endorsements tracked
Chaz Molder5 · 83%
Andy Ogles1 · 17%
Total6
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DChaz Molder5 endorsers
Most notable · Raumesh Akbari · state senator from the 29th district (2019–present)
Elected officials4
Federal 3State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 4
- Raumesh Akbari · state senator from the 29th district (2019–present)
- Steve Cohen · TN-09 (2007–present)
- Suzan DelBene · WA-01 (2012–present)
- Jim Cooper · former TN-05 (1983–1995, 2003–2023)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- DCCC · Red to Blue
RAndy Ogles1 endorser
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-07-01Andy OglesH2TN05446 ↗
Receipts
$447.5K
Disburse
$424.4K
Cash on hand
$85.1K
Debts
$70.4K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Chaz Molder
Receipts
$1.8M
Disburse
$551.5K
Cash on hand
$1.3M
Debts
$1.1K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$288.3K
D side
$65.06 · 0%
R side
$288.2K · 100%
Top spender
FREEDOM CAUCUS FUND
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FREEDOM CAUCUS FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $284.6K | 99% | for Andy Ogles |
| CLUB FOR GROWTH PAC pac · boosts R
| R | $3.6K | 1% | for Andy Ogles |
| ALLIANCE FOR ACCOUNTABILITY super pac · boosts D
| D | $65.06 | 0% | against Andy Ogles |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
8 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
8 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles8
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.38
Coverage lean (D−R) · first week of data
Net favorability
Score+0.38
Week-over-weekfirst week of data
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 38%
Neutral 62%
38% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets38%
Neutral62%
R-leaning outlets0%
38% of outlets classified by editorial lean
N
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Redrawn district, Chaz Molder pose challenges for Andy Ogles
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Internal Poll: Molder Trails Ogles by 6 Points in TN-05
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Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified1 / 1deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-07-01
Endorsements6 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage8 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks