Public domain
RepublicanRunning for TN-5 U.S. House · 2026
Andy Ogles
William Andrew Ogles IV is an American politician and business owner serving as the U.S. representative for Tennessee's 5th congressional district since 2023. A member of the Republican Party, he previously served as the mayor of Maury County, Tennessee, from 2018 to 2022.
Born 1971 · Nashville, Tennessee , U.S.
In brief
AI · verified vs data · 2026-07-03
U.S. Representative Andy Ogles has served Tennessee's 5th district since 2023 and is running for the House seat in 2026. Previously, he was mayor of Maury County from 2018 to 2022. Polling shows him leading opponent Chaz Molder by roughly six points, about 47% to 41%. Markets place his win probability at around 70%. He has raised approximately $400,000.
47%
Polling average
our aggregate
74%
Win probability
market-implied
$448k
Raised this cycle
FEC · committee
Independence scorecard
Computed · FEC money mixWho Ogles's money comes from.
C−
39/100
Independence index
Funding mix leans on concentrated money — pac independence is the weak spot.
3 watch items · pac independence
Small-dollar reliance44
22% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence4
24% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding48
52% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure61
$288k in outside spending supports the campaign
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
Governing & voting record
What Ogles did in office.
MeasureYearAction
To amend the Immigration and Nationality Act to clarify the classes of individuals born in the United States w
Referred to the House Committee on the Judiciary.
2026
Sponsored
Remigration Act
Referred to the House Committee on the Judiciary.
2026
Sponsored
Saving FACE Act of 2026
Referred to the House Committee on the Judiciary.
2026
Sponsored
Tiananmen Square Memorial Act of 2026
Referred to the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform.
2026
Sponsored
ASSIMILATION Act
Referred to the Committee on the Judiciary, and in addition to the Committee on Education and Workforce, for a period to be subsequently determined by
2026
Sponsored
Safeguarding Honest Speech Act of 2026
Referred to the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform.
2026
Sponsored
To designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 417 West 7th Street in Columbia, Tenn
Received in the Senate and Read twice and referred to the Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs.
2025
Sponsored
SPONSORED LEGISLATION VIA CONGRESS.GOV · ENACTED BILLS FIRST, THEN THE MOST RECENT · ROLE SHOWS THE BILL'S LATEST STATUS.
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
How Ogles votes
With the party, against it, and where on the spectrum.
Ideological placement · roll-call record
Dem median
GOP median
Ogles
← LiberalCenterConservative →
Right
Overall lean
88
DW-NOMINATE · 0–100
DW-NOMINATE FIRST-DIMENSION SCORE FROM ROLL-CALL VOTES IN THE 119TH CONGRESS (HOUSE), VIA VOTEVIEW. 0 = MOST LIBERAL, 100 = MOST CONSERVATIVE.
Party unity · 540 roll-calls · 119th Congress (House)
92%voted with Republicans · 8% broke ranks
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Career & history
2023United States representative
since 2023
Public favorability
—
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Donors & money
FEC itemized filings · cycle-to-dateWho funds the campaign.
$448k
Raised
$424k
Spent
$85k
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
22% small (<$200)54% large indiv.24% PAC
48% in-state · 52% out-of-state (itemized)
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-03-31 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING. SOURCE: FEC ↗
Race
The contest Ogles is running in.
TN · HOUSE · 2026likely r
Ogles (R) vs Chaz Molder (D)
47%+6.0 Ogles41%
Open full race detail →
Related prediction markets
All markets →Live contract prices tied to Ogles and the seat. Prices are ¢-per-share of the YES outcome; context only, never merged into our polling averages.
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT. · PHOTO: LIBRARY OF CONGRESS · PUBLIC DOMAIN (WIKIMEDIA COMMONS)
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Republican · TN-5 U.S. House
Andy Ogles
William Andrew Ogles IV is an American politician and business owner serving as the U.S. representative for Tennessee's 5th congressional district since 2023. A member of the Republican Party, he previously served as the mayor of Maury County, Tennessee, from 2018 to 2022.
Where Ogles standsRace →
Ogles 47%Chaz Molder 41%
Market · wins
74¢
47%
Poll avg
74%
Win prob
$448k
Raised
In brief
AI · verified vs data · 2026-07-03U.S. Representative Andy Ogles has served Tennessee's 5th district since 2023 and is running for the House seat in 2026. Previously, he was mayor of Maury County from 2018 to 2022. Polling shows him leading opponent Chaz Molder by roughly six points, about 47% to 41%. Markets place his win probability at around 70%. He has raised approximately $400,000.
Governing & voting record
To amend the Immigration and Nationality Act to clarify the classes of individuals born in the United States w
2026 · SPONSORED
Remigration Act
2026 · SPONSORED
Saving FACE Act of 2026
2026 · SPONSORED
Tiananmen Square Memorial Act of 2026
2026 · SPONSORED
ASSIMILATION Act
2026 · SPONSORED
Safeguarding Honest Speech Act of 2026
2026 · SPONSORED
To designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 417 West 7th Street in Columbia, Tenn
2025 · SPONSORED
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
Career & history
2023United States representative
since 2023
Public favorability
—
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Independence scorecard
Who Ogles's money comes from.
C−
39/100
Independence index
Funding mix leans on concentrated money — pac independence is the weak spot.
3 watch items · pac independence
Small-dollar reliance44
22% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence4
24% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding48
52% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure61
$288k in outside spending supports the campaign
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
How Ogles votes
Ideological placement · roll-call record
Dem median
GOP median
Ogles
← LiberalCenterConservative →
Right
Overall lean
88
DW-NOMINATE · 0–100
DW-NOMINATE FIRST-DIMENSION SCORE FROM ROLL-CALL VOTES IN THE 119TH CONGRESS (HOUSE), VIA VOTEVIEW. 0 = MOST LIBERAL, 100 = MOST CONSERVATIVE.
Party unity · 540 roll-calls · 119th Congress (House)
92%voted with Republicans · 8% broke ranks
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Donors & money
$448k
Raised
$424k
Spent
$85k
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
22% small (<$200)54% large indiv.24% PAC
48% in-state · 52% out-of-state (itemized)
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-03-31 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING. SOURCE: FEC ↗
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT. · PHOTO: LIBRARY OF CONGRESS · PUBLIC DOMAIN (WIKIMEDIA COMMONS)