Public domain
DemocratRunning for TN-5 U.S. House · 2026
Chaz Molder
The 2026 United States House of Representatives elections in Tennessee will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the nine U.S. representatives from the State of Tennessee, one from all nine of the state's congressional districts. The elections will coincide with other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. On May 6, 2026, Tennessee Republicans released a newly proposed congressional map that would draw out Rep. Steve Cohen (D-TN) of Memphis, shifting the state's delegation from an 8–1 Republican majority to a 9–0 Republican majority. The map passed both chambers and was signed into law by governor Bill Lee on May 7. The enactment of the new map extended the congressional filing deadline to May 15. The primary elections will take place on August 6, 2026.
In brief
AI · verified vs data · 2026-07-04
Molder, a Democrat, is running for Tennessee's 5th House seat in 2026. With about 41% polling support, he trails opponent Andy Ogles at around 47%. He has raised roughly $1.8 million for the race. Polymarket data suggests about a 20% implied win probability in a district rated likely Republican.
41%
Polling average
our aggregate
24%
Win probability
market-implied
$1.8M
Raised this cycle
FEC · committee
Independence scorecard
Computed · FEC money mixWho Molder's money comes from.
B
69/100
Independence index
A mixed funding picture — small-dollar reliance is the watch item.
1 watch item · small-dollar reliance
Small-dollar reliance18
9% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence72
7% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding87
13% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure100
No significant outside spending in support so far
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
Governing & voting record
—
No legislative record
Roll-call votes and sponsored bills are collected for members of Congress from congress.gov. There is no roll-call source for this office yet.
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
How they vote
—
No party-unity or ideology scores
Party-unity and DW-NOMINATE ideology scores are only available for candidates with a congressional roll-call record.
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Career & history
—
No career timeline
Career history is built from Wikipedia / Wikidata records. No matching public record was found for this candidate.
Public favorability
—
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Donors & money
FEC itemized filings · cycle-to-dateWho funds the campaign.
$1.8M
Raised
$551k
Spent
$1.3M
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
9% small (<$200)84% large indiv.7% PAC
87% in-state · 13% out-of-state (itemized)
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-03-31 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING.
Race
The contest Molder is running in.
TN · HOUSE · 2026likely r
Molder (D) vs Andy Ogles (R)
41%−6.0 Ogles47%
Open full race detail →
Related prediction markets
All markets →Live contract prices tied to Molder and the seat. Prices are ¢-per-share of the YES outcome; context only, never merged into our polling averages.
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT. · PHOTO: U.S. GOVERNMENT · PUBLIC DOMAIN (WIKIMEDIA COMMONS)
Related coverage
nytimes.com · 2026-06-27
Tennessee Fifth Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
grindcitymedia.com · 2026-06-26
Kendrick Perkins Headed To Jackson State + Tennessee State Suspends Hockey Program | HBCU Huddle
nytimes.com · 2026-06-24
Tennessee Governor Election 2026: Latest Polls
nytimes.com · 2026-06-24
Tennessee Ninth Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
Democrat · TN-5 U.S. House
Chaz Molder
The 2026 United States House of Representatives elections in Tennessee will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the nine U.S. representatives from the State of Tennessee, one from all nine of the state's congressional districts. The elections will coincide with other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. On May 6, 2026, Tennessee Republicans released a newly proposed congressional map that would draw out Rep. Steve Cohen (D-TN) of Memphis, shifting the state's delegation from an 8–1 Republican majority to a 9–0 Republican majority. The map passed both chambers and was signed into law by governor Bill Lee on May 7. The enactment of the new map extended the congressional filing deadline to May 15. The primary elections will take place on August 6, 2026.
Where Molder standsRace →
Molder 41%Andy Ogles 47%
Market · wins
24¢
41%
Poll avg
24%
Win prob
$1.8M
Raised
In brief
AI · verified vs data · 2026-07-04Molder, a Democrat, is running for Tennessee's 5th House seat in 2026. With about 41% polling support, he trails opponent Andy Ogles at around 47%. He has raised roughly $1.8 million for the race. Polymarket data suggests about a 20% implied win probability in a district rated likely Republican.
Governing & voting record
—
No legislative record
Roll-call votes and sponsored bills are collected for members of Congress from congress.gov. There is no roll-call source for this office yet.
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
Career & history
—
No career timeline
Career history is built from Wikipedia / Wikidata records. No matching public record was found for this candidate.
Public favorability
—
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Independence scorecard
Who Molder's money comes from.
B
69/100
Independence index
A mixed funding picture — small-dollar reliance is the watch item.
1 watch item · small-dollar reliance
Small-dollar reliance18
9% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence72
7% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding87
13% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure100
No significant outside spending in support so far
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
How they vote
—
No party-unity or ideology scores
Party-unity and DW-NOMINATE ideology scores are only available for candidates with a congressional roll-call record.
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Donors & money
$1.8M
Raised
$551k
Spent
$1.3M
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
9% small (<$200)84% large indiv.7% PAC
87% in-state · 13% out-of-state (itemized)
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-03-31 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING.
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT. · PHOTO: U.S. GOVERNMENT · PUBLIC DOMAIN (WIKIMEDIA COMMONS)