Races · house · 2026 · Pennsylvania
house · open seat
Paige Cognetti vs Rob Bresnahan
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 18d ago, but only 2 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedTilt D · model 60% R · market gap 24pp
Polling average rates this race Tilt D (D+1.5, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+3.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+19.3 (10th pctile) to D+12.9 (90th pctile), giving R a 60% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 64/100 (high). Key drivers: wide forecast CI (32.2pp); models disagree by 8.3pp. Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
⚠ Model and market disagree sharply. Model says D wins at 40%, market says 64% — 24pp gap (opposite winners). Either side could be wrong — worth a closer look.
CITATIONS · tilt-d · low-tipping · uncertainty-high · market-disagreement-large
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
64
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide forecast CI (32.2pp).
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement42
8.3pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution42 / 100
Measured8.3pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Pollster dispersion5
0.5pp cross-pollster spread
Pollster dispersion
Contribution5 / 100
Measured0.5pp cross-pollster spread
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity75
2 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution75 / 100
Measured2 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +3.2
80% CI: R +19.3 → D +12.9 · win prob 40%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 3 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +7.0
80% CI R +10.6 → R +4.8
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +1.3
80% CI R +1.5 → D +4.1
CV MAE 2.19
consensusMarket-implied
D +2.5
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 61¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 15 points more bullish on D than polling. Markets 61% · polls 47%.
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
1 polls · through Jun 23, 2026 · latest Lake Research Partners
Paige Cognetti
VoteHub47.0%
VoteHub
Polling average47.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg46.6%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average46.6%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.4 pt above our average
Rob Bresnahan
VoteHub45.0%
VoteHub
Polling average45.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg45.0%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average45.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.0 pt above our average
VoteHub's independent average across 1 polls (through Jun 23, 2026): Paige Cognetti 47.0%, Rob Bresnahan 45.0%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 3 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 22, 26 | Lake Research PartnersFor · Internal D-aligned | 400 · unknown | NEUTRAL | — | +17.7noisy | 47 · 45 |
| Jun 10, 26 | Impact Research+1For · Internal D-aligned | 500 · LV | D-LEAN | — | +10.7d lean | 46 · 45 |
| Aug 27, 25 | Public Policy Polling+1For · Internal D-aligned | 615 · unknown | NEUTRAL | D +0.9104 tracked | +2.4noisy | 45 · 43 |
Endorsements · 39 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet28
11
Endorsements tracked
Paige Cognetti28 · 72%
Rob Bresnahan11 · 28%
Total39
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DPaige Cognetti28 endorsers
Most notable · Austin Davis · lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania (2023–present)
Organizations20
Organizations · 20
- Brady PAC
- DCCC · Red to Blue
- Democratic Majority for Israel
- Democrats for Education Reform
- EMILYs List
- Elect Democratic Women
- End Citizens United
- Giffords
- Human Rights Campaign
- International Union of Painters and Allied Trades · District Council 21
- Ironworkers · Local 404
- J Street
- League of Conservation Voters · Action Fund
- New Democrat Coalition
- Pennsylvania Association of Staff Nurses and Allied Professionals
- Pennsylvania Conference of Teamsters
- Pennsylvania State Education Association
- SEIU Pennsylvania State Council
- Vote Mama
- WelcomePAC
Elected officials8
Federal 6State 2Local 0
Elected officials · 8
- Austin Davis · lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania (2023–present)
- Josh Shapiro · governor of Pennsylvania (2023–present)
- Chris Deluzio · PA-17 (2023–present)
- Greg Stanton · AZ-04 (2019–present)
- Suzan DelBene · WA-01 (2012–present)
- Gabby Giffords · former AZ-08 (2007–2012)
- Mark Kelly · Arizona (2020–present)
- Matt Cartwright · former PA-08 (2013–2025)
RRob Bresnahan11 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Organizations9
Organizations · 9
- American Federation of Government Employees
- Boilermakers · Local 13
- Brotherhood of Railroad Signalmen
- IBEW · Local 163
- International Union of Operating Engineers · Local 542
- Laborers' · nia Laborers' District Council
- National Electrical Contractors Association
- Pennsylvania Conference of Teamsters
- Republican Jewish Coalition
Elected officials2
Federal 2State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 2
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Mike Johnson · speaker of the House (2023–present) from LA-04 (2017–present)
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-05-15Paige CognettiH6PA08293 ↗
Receipts
$3.1M
Disburse
$852.2K
Cash on hand
$2.3M
Debts
$0
Cumulative receipts · 4 filings
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Rob BresnahanH4PA08124 ↗
Receipts
$4.5M
Disburse
$2.3M
Cash on hand
$2.3M
Debts
$777.1K
Cumulative receipts · 6 filings
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$93.6K
D side
$93.6K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
WelcomePAC
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WelcomePAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $90.1K | 96% | for Paige Cognetti |
| ACTIVATE AMERICA super pac · boosts D
| D | $1.5K | 2% | against Rob Bresnahan |
| MomsRising PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $1.4K | 1% | for Paige Cognetti |
| DMFI PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $381.82 | 0% | for Paige Cognetti |
| GIVEGREEN UNITED ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $181.45 | 0% | for Paige Cognetti |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Tossup3
Tossup · 3 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Lean R1
Lean R · 1 rater
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Cook Political Report
TossupInside Elections
TossupSabato's Crystal Ball
Lean RSplit Ticket
TossupDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
30 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
30 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles30
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.33
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.36 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.33
Week-over-weekshift −0.36 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 33%
Neutral 67%
33% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets33%
Neutral67%
R-leaning outlets0%
33% of outlets classified by editorial lean
N
Former Pennsylvania State Senator Shirley Kitchen dies at 79
M
Pennsylvania Democratic Senators Put Pressure On GOP To Allow A Vote On Legalizing Marijuana
M
Trump leans on Pennsylvania rally amid record-low approval
N
Pennsylvania Eighth Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
T
HMP POLL: Paige Cognetti Leads Rob Bresnahan in PA-08
D
Eric Holder Announces Endorsements for Pennsylvania Governor, State House, and State Senate
T
Poll: Pennsylvania Voters Strongly Support Legalizing, Regulating and Taxing Adult-Use Marijuana
W
Trump heads to battleground Pennsylvania but keep focuses on himself ahead of midterm elections
B
Trump heads to battleground Pennsylvania but keep focuses on himself ahead of midterm elections
C
New Poll: Pennsylvanians Reject Shapiro's Budget, Demand More Educational Choice, and Oppose Costly Energy Mandates
Page 1 of 3
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified3 / 3deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-05-15
Endorsements39 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage30 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks