CC BY 2.0
DemocratRunning for PA-8 U.S. House · 2026
Paige Cognetti
Paige Gebhardt Cognetti is an American politician serving since 2020 as mayor of Scranton, Pennsylvania. She is the first woman to be mayor of the city and won her seat in a special election. A member of the Democratic Party, she ran her first Scranton mayoral campaign as an Independent. She is the Democratic nominee for Pennsylvania's 8th congressional district in 2026.
Born 1980 · Eugene, Oregon , U.S.
In brief
AI · verified vs data · 2026-07-03
Paige Cognetti has served as mayor of Scranton, Pennsylvania since 2020, the city's first woman mayor. She is the Democratic nominee for Pennsylvania's 8th congressional district in 2026. Polling shows her with about 47% support versus opponent Rob Bresnahan's roughly 45%, giving her a narrow lead. Market data implies about a 60% win probability. She has raised roughly $3 million for the campaign.
46.6%
Polling average
our aggregate
58%
Win probability
market-implied
$3.1M
Raised this cycle
FEC · committee
Independence scorecard
Computed · FEC money mixWho Cognetti's money comes from.
C+
53/100
Independence index
A mixed funding picture — in-state funding is the watch item.
2 watch items · in-state funding
Small-dollar reliance28
14% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence64
9% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding22
78% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure97
$92k in outside spending supports the campaign
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
Governing & voting record
—
No legislative record
Roll-call votes and sponsored bills are collected for members of Congress from congress.gov. There is no roll-call source for this office yet.
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
How they vote
—
No party-unity or ideology scores
Party-unity and DW-NOMINATE ideology scores are only available for candidates with a congressional roll-call record.
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Career & history
2020Mayor of Scranton, Pennsylvania
since 2020
Public favorability
—
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Donors & money
FEC itemized filings · cycle-to-dateWho funds the campaign.
$3.1M
Raised
$852k
Spent
$2.3M
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
14% small (<$200)77% large indiv.9% PAC
22% in-state · 78% out-of-state (itemized)
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-04-29 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING. SOURCE: FEC ↗
Race
The contest Cognetti is running in.
PA · HOUSE · 2026tilt d
Cognetti (D) vs Rob Bresnahan (R)
46.6%+1.6 Cognetti45%
Open full race detail →
Related prediction markets
All markets →Live contract prices tied to Cognetti and the seat. Prices are ¢-per-share of the YES outcome; context only, never merged into our polling averages.
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT. · PHOTO: US DEPARTMENT OF LABOR · CC BY 2.0 (WIKIMEDIA COMMONS)
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Democrat · PA-8 U.S. House
Paige Cognetti
Paige Gebhardt Cognetti is an American politician serving since 2020 as mayor of Scranton, Pennsylvania. She is the first woman to be mayor of the city and won her seat in a special election. A member of the Democratic Party, she ran her first Scranton mayoral campaign as an Independent. She is the Democratic nominee for Pennsylvania's 8th congressional district in 2026.
Where Cognetti standsRace →
Cognetti 46.6%Rob Bresnahan 45%
Market · wins
58¢
46.6%
Poll avg
58%
Win prob
$3.1M
Raised
In brief
AI · verified vs data · 2026-07-03Paige Cognetti has served as mayor of Scranton, Pennsylvania since 2020, the city's first woman mayor. She is the Democratic nominee for Pennsylvania's 8th congressional district in 2026. Polling shows her with about 47% support versus opponent Rob Bresnahan's roughly 45%, giving her a narrow lead. Market data implies about a 60% win probability. She has raised roughly $3 million for the campaign.
Governing & voting record
—
No legislative record
Roll-call votes and sponsored bills are collected for members of Congress from congress.gov. There is no roll-call source for this office yet.
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
Career & history
2020Mayor of Scranton, Pennsylvania
since 2020
Public favorability
—
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Independence scorecard
Who Cognetti's money comes from.
C+
53/100
Independence index
A mixed funding picture — in-state funding is the watch item.
2 watch items · in-state funding
Small-dollar reliance28
14% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence64
9% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding22
78% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure97
$92k in outside spending supports the campaign
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
How they vote
—
No party-unity or ideology scores
Party-unity and DW-NOMINATE ideology scores are only available for candidates with a congressional roll-call record.
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Donors & money
$3.1M
Raised
$852k
Spent
$2.3M
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
14% small (<$200)77% large indiv.9% PAC
22% in-state · 78% out-of-state (itemized)
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-04-29 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING. SOURCE: FEC ↗
Race
PA · HOUSE · 2026tilt d
Cognetti (D) vs Rob Bresnahan (R)
46.6%+1.6 Cognetti45%
Open full race detail →
Related prediction markets
All markets →Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT. · PHOTO: US DEPARTMENT OF LABOR · CC BY 2.0 (WIKIMEDIA COMMONS)