Races · house · 2026 · New York
house · open seat
Blake Gendebien vs Anthony Constantino
Where this race stands
VerifiedTilt R · model 94% R
Polling average rates this race Tilt R (R+1.0, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+19.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+35.7 (10th pctile) to R+3.5 (90th pctile), giving R a 94% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 98/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · tilt-r · low-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
98
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement98
19.6pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution98 / 100
Measured19.6pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity88
1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution88 / 100
Measured1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +19.6
80% CI: R +35.7 → R +3.5 · win prob 6%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 1 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +20.6
80% CI R +24.9 → R +20.2
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +1.0
80% CI R +5.7 → D +3.7
CV MAE 3.67
consensusMarket-implied
R +6.3
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 25¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 20 points less bullish on D than polling. Markets 25% · polls 44%.
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the NY-21 House seat?” | 25¢ | 74¢ | -3¢ | — | +0 |
All polls · 1 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 30 | Impact Research+1For · Internal D-aligned | 500 · LV | D-LEAN | — | +10.7d lean | 44 · 45 |
Endorsements · 10 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet4
6
Endorsements tracked
Blake Gendebien4 · 40%
Anthony Constantino6 · 60%
Total10
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RAnthony Constantino6 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Other3
Other · 3
- Henry Cejudo · Olympic Gold Medalist
- Jim Jordan · OH-4
- Michael Flynn · former National Security Adviser (2017)
Elected officials2
Federal 1State 0Local 1
Elected officials · 2
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Rudy Giuliani · former mayor of New York City (1994–2001)
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Roger Stone · political consultant
DBlake Gendebien4 endorsers
Most notable · Jamie Raskin · MD-08 (2017–present)
Elected officials4
Federal 4State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 4
- Jamie Raskin · MD-08 (2017–present)
- Joe Morelle · NY-25 (2018–present)
- John Mannion · NY-22 (2025–present)
- Bill Owens · former NY-21 (2009–2015)
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-17Anthony ConstantinoH6NY21157 ↗
Receipts
$7.5M
Disburse
$6.6M
Cash on hand
$3.1M
Debts
$10.0M
Cumulative receipts · 6 filings
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Blake GendebienH6NY21199 ↗
Receipts
$5.0M
Disburse
$3.0M
Cash on hand
$2.3M
Debts
$0
Cumulative receipts · 6 filings
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$162.4K
D side
$122.4K · 75%
R side
$40.0K · 25%
Top spender
AMERICA FIRST WARRI…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMERICA FIRST WARRIOR PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $82.5K | 51% | against Anthony Constantino |
| SAVE AMERICAN FREEDOM super pac · boosts R
| R | $40.0K | 25% | against Blake Gendebien |
| BLUEWAVEAMERICA pac · boosts D
| D | $39.1K | 24% | for Blake Gendebien |
| ACTIVATE AMERICA super pac · boosts D
| D | $737.9 | 0% | for Blake Gendebien |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
58 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles58
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.19
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.25 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.19
Week-over-weekshift +0.25 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 24%
Neutral 71%
R 5%
29% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets24%
Neutral71%
R-leaning outlets5%
29% of outlets classified by editorial lean
N
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NY-21: Poll suggests tight race between Constantino and Gendebien
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Page 1 of 4
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified1 / 1deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-17
Endorsements20 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks