Races · house · 2026 · Nebraska
house · open seat
Chris Backemeyer vs Mike Flood
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 92% R
Polling average rates this race Likely R (R+7.5, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+17.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+33.3 (10th pctile) to R+1.1 (90th pctile), giving R a 92% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 66/100 (high). Key drivers: wide forecast CI (32.2pp); models disagree by 9.6pp. Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
67
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide forecast CI (32.2pp).
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement48
9.6pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution48 / 100
Measured9.6pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Pollster dispersion5
0.5pp cross-pollster spread
Pollster dispersion
Contribution5 / 100
Measured0.5pp cross-pollster spread
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity75
2 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution75 / 100
Measured2 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +17.3
80% CI: R +33.3 → R +1.1 · win prob 8%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 3 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +16.5
80% CI R +17.3 → R +15.9
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +7.7
80% CI R +10.7 → R +4.6
CV MAE 2.38
consensusMarket-implied
R +9.4
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 16¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 19 points less bullish on D than polling. Markets 16% · polls 34%.
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the NE-01 House seat?” | 16¢ | 82¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
2 polls · through May 19, 2026 · latest Tavern Research
Mike Flood
VoteHub45.0%
VoteHub
Polling average45.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg42.0%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average42.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 3.0 pt above our average
Chris Backemeyer
VoteHub40.5%
VoteHub
Polling average40.5%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg34.4%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average34.4%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 6.1 pt above our average
VoteHub's independent average across 2 polls (through May 19, 2026): Mike Flood 45.0%, Chris Backemeyer 40.5%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 3 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 18 | Tavern Research+1For · Internal D-aligned | 1,079 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +6.6decoupled | 33 · 41 |
| May 10 | Zenith Research+2For · Internal D-aligned | 371 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +4.3d lean | 38 · 45 |
| May 10 | Zenith Research+2For · Internal D-aligned | 371 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +4.3d lean | 44 |
Endorsements · 4 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet4
Endorsements tracked
Chris Backemeyer0 · 0%
Mike Flood4 · 100%
Total4
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RMike Flood4 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · President of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials2
Federal 2State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 2
- Donald Trump · President of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate · chnician and Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate
Organizations2
Organizations · 2
- AIPAC
- Track AIPAC
DChris Backemeyer0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —Mike Flood
Receipts
$2.0M
Disburse
$872.4K
Cash on hand
$1.3M
Debts
$6.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Chris Backemeyer
Receipts
$354.2K
Disburse
$162.0K
Cash on hand
$192.2K
Debts
$50.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely R1
Likely R · 1 rater
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Safe R3
Safe R · 3 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Likely RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified3 / 3deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements4 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks