Races · house · 2026 · North Carolina
house · open seat
Ashley Bell vs Pat Harrigan
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe R · model 95% R
Polling average rates this race Safe R (R+15.0, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+20.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+36.5 (10th pctile) to R+4.3 (90th pctile), giving R a 95% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · safe-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +20.4
80% CI: R +36.5 → R +4.3 · win prob 5%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 1 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +23.3
80% CI R +28.4 → R +13.4
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +15.0
80% CI R +20.2 → R +9.8
CV MAE 4.06
consensusMarket-implied
R +10.8
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 13¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 25 points less bullish on D than polling. Markets 13% · polls 37%.
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the NC-10 House seat?” | 13¢ | 88¢ | -1¢ | — | +0 |
All polls · 1 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11 | Ragnar Research Partners+2For · Internal R-aligned | 400 · LV | R-LEAN | — | -3.4decoupled | 37 · 52 |
Endorsements · 6 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet4
2
Endorsements tracked
Ashley Bell4 · 67%
Pat Harrigan2 · 33%
Total6
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DAshley Bell4 endorsers
Most notable · Daily Kos
Organizations4
Organizations · 4
- Daily Kos
- Equality North Carolina
- Red Wine & Blue
- Track AIPAC
RPat Harrigan2 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- AIPAC
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-03-03Ashley BellH6NC10174 ↗
Receipts
$28.0K
Disburse
$24.3K
Cash on hand
$5.7K
Debts
$8.5K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Pat Harrigan
Receipts
$974.0K
Disburse
$586.5K
Cash on hand
$440.3K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$56.79
D side
$56.79 · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
RED WINE AND BLUE
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RED WINE AND BLUE pac · boosts D
| D | $56.79 | 100% | for Ashley Bell |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified1 / 1deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-03-03
Endorsements9 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks