Races · house · 2026 · MN
house · open seat

Jake Johnson vs Brad Finstad

← MN house MN house →
Likely R R +6.5 · 176 days to election · 2 polls · 0 markets Last poll 57d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 2 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 63% D

likely-r · uncertainty-high
Forecast · poliagg-v8
Predicted final margin
D +4.8
80% CI: R +12.7 → D +22.3 · win prob 63%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used2
Days to election181
Residual σ13.66pt
Generated5/6/2026
▼ Compare with other models1 models
poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)
D +4.8
80% CI R +12.7 → D +22.3
CV MAE 13.66

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
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All polls · 2 results

2 of 2 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
3/14/2026Ragnar Research Partners1.00R400±5.0LV
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+2
  • commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 80 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Brad Finstad 52.0 · Jake Johnson 42.0pollarch
2/3/2026Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)708±3.7RV
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned96d old+3
  • commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • 96d old
    Poll was fielded 96 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Brad Finstad 44.0 · Jake Johnson 41.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Likely D Apr 30 -6.5 +9.0 -15.5
Inside Elections Likely D Dec 5 -6.5 +9.0 -15.5
Sabato's Crystal Ball Likely D Mar 26 -6.5 +9.0 -15.5

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 8 weeks ago (3/14/2026) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (2 changes)
  • 5/6/2026 Likely R R+6.5 via polls held 2d
  • 5/4/2026 Tilt D via pvi

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