Races · house · 2026 · Minnesota
house · open seat
Minnesota house
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 25d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe D · model 81% D · market gap 11pp
With limited polling, prediction markets imply Safe D (D win prob 92%, market-derived).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+11.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+5.1 (10th pctile) to D+27.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 81% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.9% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 100/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
Model and market disagree: Model says D wins at 81%, market says 92% — 11pp gap.
CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping · uncertainty-high · market-disagreement-medium
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
100
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement88
17.5pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution88 / 100
Measured17.5pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +11.0
80% CI: R +5.1 → D +27.1 · win prob 81%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +7.3
80% CI D +2.7 → D +20.3
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +6.5
80% CI R +9.8 → R +3.2
CV MAE 2.58
consensusMarket-implied
D +12.5
no interval
market-implied
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yetDKaela Berg0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-07-02Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$242.5K
D side
$242.5K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
Elect Democratic Women
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elect Democratic Women other · boosts D
| D | $100.0K | 41% | for Kaela Jo Berg |
| Women Vote other · boosts D
| D | $84.3K | 35% | for Kaela Jo Berg |
| National Nurses United for Patient Protection other · boosts D
| D | $61.4K | 25% | for Little Matt |
| IN UNION USA other · boosts D
| D | $58.2K | 24% | for Kaela Jo Berg |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D1
Safe D · 1 rater
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Likely D3
Likely D · 3 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Cook Political Report
Likely DInside Elections
Likely DSabato's Crystal Ball
Likely DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-07-02
Endorsements2 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks