Democratic primary · August 11, 2026
Minnesota house Democratic primary
Field of 3 Democratic candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 25d ago, but only 2 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Democratic primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
73
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (21.5pp).
Forecast CI width72
21.5pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution72 / 100
Measured21.5pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity75
2 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution75 / 100
Measured2 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Democratic primary
primary-struct-v1 · medium confidence · 2 polls + fundamentals1Matt LittleMatthew Martin Little is an American politician and a former member of the Minnesota Senate. A member of the Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Lab…
2Matt KleinMatthew David Klein is an American politician and member of the Minnesota Senate. A member of the Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party (D…
3Kaela BergKaela Berg is an American politician serving in the Minnesota House of Representatives since 2021. A member of the Minnesota Democratic Farm…
All polls · 2 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Berg | Klein | Little | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | GQR | 403 · LV | 16 | 19 | 26 | +7 |
| May 19 | Impact Research | 400 · LV | 13 | 11 | 41 | +28 |
Endorsements · Democratic primary · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yetDKaela Berg0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DMatt Klein0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DMatt Little0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing 2026-07-02Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 2deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-07-02
Endorsements2 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks