Races · house · 2026 · Minnesota
house · open seat
Jake Johnson vs Brad Finstad
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 83% R
Polling average rates this race Likely R (R+6.5, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+12.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+28.2 (10th pctile) to D+4.0 (90th pctile), giving R a 83% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +12.1
80% CI: R +28.2 → D +4.0 · win prob 17%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 2 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +16.5
80% CI R +19.8 → R +15.4
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +6.4
80% CI R +9.8 → R +3.0
CV MAE 2.66
consensusMarket-implied
R +5.4
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 28¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 14 points less bullish on D than polling. Markets 28% · polls 42%.
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the MN-01 House seat?” | 28¢ | 70¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
All polls · 2 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13 | Ragnar Research Partners+2For · Internal R-aligned | 400 · LV | R-LEAN | — | -3.4decoupled | 42 · 52 |
| Feb 2 | Public Policy Polling+2For · Internal D-aligned | 708 · RV | NEUTRAL | D +0.9104 tracked | +2.4noisy | 41 · 44 |
Endorsements · 22 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet19
3
Endorsements tracked
Jake Johnson19 · 86%
Brad Finstad3 · 14%
Total22
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DJake Johnson19 endorsers
Most notable · Chris Deluzio · PA-17 (2023–present)
Organizations14
Organizations · 14
- 314 Action
- American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees
- Clean Water Action
- Education Minnesota
- End Citizens United
- League of Conservation Voters
- Minnesota 50501
- Minnesota Association of Professional Employees
- Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party
- Minnesota Young DFL
- National Education Association
- NewDem Action Fund
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Service Employees International Union · Minnesota State Council
Elected officials5
Federal 5State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 5
- Chris Deluzio · PA-17 (2023–present)
- Greg Stanton · AZ-04 (2019–present)
- Pat Ryan · NY-18 (2022–present)
- Pete Buttigieg · former U.S. secretary of transportation (2021–2025)
- Tina Smith · Minnesota (2018–present)
RBrad Finstad3 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Organizations2
Organizations · 2
- AIPAC
- Republican Party of Minnesota
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-02-03Brad FinstadH2MN01223 ↗
Receipts
$1.4M
Disburse
$599.9K
Cash on hand
$833.7K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Jake Johnson
Receipts
$1.2M
Disburse
$650.8K
Cash on hand
$571.2K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$1.6K
D side
$1.6K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
MINNESOTA DEMOCRATI…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MINNESOTA DEMOCRATIC-FARMER-LABOR PARTY party · boosts D
| D | $1.6K | 100% | against Brad Finstad |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely R3
Likely R · 3 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Safe R1
Safe R · 1 rater
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Likely RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Likely RSplit Ticket
Likely RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
4 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
4 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles4
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.25
Coverage lean (D−R) · first week of data
Net favorability
Score+0.25
Week-over-weekfirst week of data
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 25%
Neutral 75%
25% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets25%
Neutral75%
R-leaning outlets0%
25% of outlets classified by editorial lean
N
Minnesota U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls
W
SurveyUSA poll shows multiple endorsed candidates fall behind in Minnesota primary races
S
The four biggest takeaways from the Minnesota Poll
K
Minnesota Poll: DFL leads for governor, senate, but undecided voters still a factor
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified2 / 2deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-02-03
Endorsements22 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage4 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks