Public domain
DemocratRunning for MN-1 U.S. House · 2026
Jake Johnson
Jake Hunter Johnson is a Republican member of the North Carolina House of Representatives who has represented the 113th district since 2019.
Born 1994 · Saluda, North Carolina , U.S.
In brief
AI · verified vs data · 2026-07-04
Jake Johnson, a Democrat, is running for Minnesota's 1st U.S. House seat in the 2026 general election. He trails in polling at about 42% to opponent Brad Finstad's roughly 51%, with markets indicating about a 30% win probability. Johnson has raised approximately $1.2 million for the race.
41.8%
Polling average
our aggregate
28%
Win probability
market-implied
$1.2M
Raised this cycle
FEC · committee
Independence scorecard
Computed · FEC money mixWho Johnson's money comes from.
A−
86/100
Independence index
Funding mix leans independent — outside-money exposure is the standout.
0 watch items
Small-dollar reliance88
44% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence80
5% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding77
23% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure100
No significant outside spending in support so far
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
Governing & voting record
—
No legislative record
Roll-call votes and sponsored bills are collected for members of Congress from congress.gov. There is no roll-call source for this office yet.
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
How they vote
—
No party-unity or ideology scores
Party-unity and DW-NOMINATE ideology scores are only available for candidates with a congressional roll-call record.
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Career & history
—
No career timeline
Career history is built from Wikipedia / Wikidata records. No matching public record was found for this candidate.
Public favorability
—
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Donors & money
FEC itemized filings · cycle-to-dateWho funds the campaign.
$1.2M
Raised
$651k
Spent
$571k
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
44% small (<$200)51% large indiv.5% PAC
77% in-state · 23% out-of-state (itemized)
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-03-31 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING.
Race
The contest Johnson is running in.
MN · HOUSE · 2026likely r
Johnson (D) vs Brad Finstad (R)
41.8%−9.1 Finstad50.9%
Open full race detail →
Related prediction markets
All markets →Live contract prices tied to Johnson and the seat. Prices are ¢-per-share of the YES outcome; context only, never merged into our polling averages.
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT. · PHOTO: NORTH CAROLINA GENERAL ASSEMBLY · PUBLIC DOMAIN (WIKIMEDIA COMMONS)
Related coverage
nytimes.com · 2026-06-24
Minnesota U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls
wdio.com · 2026-06-18
SurveyUSA poll shows multiple endorsed candidates fall behind in Minnesota primary races
startribune.com · 2026-06-18
The four biggest takeaways from the Minnesota Poll
kare11.com · 2026-06-15
Minnesota Poll: DFL leads for governor, senate, but undecided voters still a factor
Democrat · MN-1 U.S. House
Jake Johnson
Jake Hunter Johnson is a Republican member of the North Carolina House of Representatives who has represented the 113th district since 2019.
Where Johnson standsRace →
Johnson 41.8%Brad Finstad 50.9%
Market · wins
28¢
41.8%
Poll avg
28%
Win prob
$1.2M
Raised
In brief
AI · verified vs data · 2026-07-04Jake Johnson, a Democrat, is running for Minnesota's 1st U.S. House seat in the 2026 general election. He trails in polling at about 42% to opponent Brad Finstad's roughly 51%, with markets indicating about a 30% win probability. Johnson has raised approximately $1.2 million for the race.
Governing & voting record
—
No legislative record
Roll-call votes and sponsored bills are collected for members of Congress from congress.gov. There is no roll-call source for this office yet.
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
Career & history
—
No career timeline
Career history is built from Wikipedia / Wikidata records. No matching public record was found for this candidate.
Public favorability
—
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Independence scorecard
Who Johnson's money comes from.
A−
86/100
Independence index
Funding mix leans independent — outside-money exposure is the standout.
0 watch items
Small-dollar reliance88
44% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence80
5% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding77
23% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure100
No significant outside spending in support so far
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
How they vote
—
No party-unity or ideology scores
Party-unity and DW-NOMINATE ideology scores are only available for candidates with a congressional roll-call record.
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Donors & money
$1.2M
Raised
$651k
Spent
$571k
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
44% small (<$200)51% large indiv.5% PAC
77% in-state · 23% out-of-state (itemized)
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-03-31 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING.
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT. · PHOTO: NORTH CAROLINA GENERAL ASSEMBLY · PUBLIC DOMAIN (WIKIMEDIA COMMONS)