Races · house · 2026 · Kentucky
house · open seat
Zach Dembo vs Ralph Alvarado
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 4d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedTossup · model 89% R
Polling average rates this race Tossup (tied, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+15.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+31.2 (10th pctile) to D+1.0 (90th pctile), giving R a 89% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 100/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · tossup · low-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
100
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement85
17.1pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution85 / 100
Measured17.1pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +15.1
80% CI: R +31.2 → D +1.0 · win prob 11%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 1 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +17.3
80% CI R +19.2 → R +14.2
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +0.2
80% CI R +2.5 → D +2.1
CV MAE 1.77
consensusMarket-implied
R +5.0
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 29¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 8 points less bullish on D than polling. Markets 29% · polls 37%.
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the KY-06 House seat?” | 29¢ | 72¢ | +1¢ | — | +0 |
All polls · 1 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24 | Public Policy Polling+2For · Internal D-aligned | 675 · RV | NEUTRAL | D +0.9104 tracked | +2.4noisy | 37 · 37 |
Endorsements · 15 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet7
8
Endorsements tracked
Zach Dembo7 · 47%
Ralph Alvarado8 · 53%
Total15
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RRalph Alvarado8 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials7
Federal 6State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 7
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Damon Thayer · former Majority Leader of the Kentucky Senate (2013–2025) from the 17th district (2003–2025)
- Mike Johnson · speaker of the United States House of Representatives (2023–present), LA-4 (2017–present)
- Brett Guthrie · KY-02 (2009–present)
- Hal Rogers · KY-05 (1981–present)
- Jim Jordan · OH-04 (2007–present)
- Matt Van Epps · TN-07 (2025–present)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- U.S. Chamber of Commerce
DZach Dembo7 endorsers
Most notable · Andy Beshear · governor of Kentucky (2019–present)
Elected officials3
Federal 1State 1Local 1
Elected officials · 3
- Andy Beshear · governor of Kentucky (2019–present)
- Ben Chandler · KY-06 (2004–2013)
- Jim Gray · mayor of Lexington (2011–2019)
Organizations3
Organizations · 3
- National Education Association
- VoteVets
- With Honor Fund
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- Lexington Herald-Leader · ( Democratic primary only )
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-05-18Zach DemboH6KY06184 ↗
Receipts
$956.4K
Disburse
$678.1K
Cash on hand
$278.3K
Debts
$0
Cumulative receipts · 4 filings
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Ralph AlvaradoH6KY06192 ↗
Receipts
$1.2M
Disburse
$720.0K
Cash on hand
$455.2K
Debts
$57.2K
Cumulative receipts · 4 filings
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$405.1K
D side
$286.5K · 71%
R side
$118.6K · 29%
Top spender
VoteVets
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VoteVets super pac · boosts D
| D | $234.0K | 58% | for Zach Dembo |
| CONSERVATIVES FOR AMERICAN EXCELLENCE INC. super pac · boosts R
| R | $58.5K | 14% | for Ralph Alvarado |
| SERVANT-LEADER FUND, INC. super pac · boosts D
| D | $52.5K | 13% | for Zach Dembo |
| GOPAC Election Fund super pac · boosts R
| R | $34.5K | 9% | for Ralph Alvarado |
| American Liberty Foundation PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $25.6K | 6% | for Ralph Alvarado |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely R2
Likely R · 2 raters
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Safe R2
Safe R · 2 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Likely RSplit Ticket
Likely RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
31 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
31 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles31
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.23
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.05 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.23
Week-over-weekshift +0.05 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 23%
Neutral 77%
23% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets23%
Neutral77%
R-leaning outlets0%
23% of outlets classified by editorial lean
T
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Kentucky primary election 2026 live results
Page 1 of 4
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified1 / 1deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-05-18
Endorsements23 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage31 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks