Races · house · 2026 · KY
house · open seat

Zach Dembo vs Ralph Alvarado

← KY house LA house →
Lean R — · 176 days to election · 0 polls · 0 markets Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Lean R · model 92% R

lean-r
Forecast · poliagg-v8
Predicted final margin
R +19.7
80% CI: R +37.2 → R +2.2 · win prob 8%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to election181
Residual σ13.66pt
Generated5/6/2026
▼ Compare with other models1 models
poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)
R +19.7
80% CI R +37.2 → R +2.2
CV MAE 13.66

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Safe R Feb 6 — -18.0 —
Inside Elections Safe R Mar 7 — -18.0 —
Sabato's Crystal Ball Likely R Jun 3 — -9.0 —

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll — last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
  • 5/4/2026 Lean R via pvi

In the news

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