CC BY-SA 3.0
RepublicanRunning for KY-6 U.S. House · 2026
Ralph Alvarado
Ralph A. Alvarado is an American physician and politician who most recently served as the 15th Commissioner of the Tennessee Department of Health from 2023 until his resignation in 2025. He previously served as a member of the Kentucky Senate, representing Kentucky's 28th Senate district from 2015 to 2023. Upon taking office, he became the first Hispanic person elected to the Kentucky General Assembly.
Born 1970 · San Francisco , California , U.S.
In brief
AI · verified vs data · 2026-07-04
Ralph A. Alvarado, a physician who served as Tennessee's health commissioner until 2025 and previously represented Kentucky in the State Senate from 2015 to 2023, is running for Kentucky's 6th House district. In polling, he and opponent Zach Dembo are effectively tied at approximately 38% and 37%, respectively. Market odds place his win probability at roughly 70%, and he has raised about $1.2 million for his campaign.
37.5%
Polling average
our aggregate
72%
Win probability
market-implied
$1.2M
Raised this cycle
FEC · committee
Independence scorecard
Computed · FEC money mixWho Alvarado's money comes from.
C+
49/100
Independence index
A mixed funding picture — small-dollar reliance is the watch item.
2 watch items · small-dollar reliance
Small-dollar reliance2
1% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence56
11% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding46
54% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure91
$119k in outside spending supports the campaign
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
Governing & voting record
—
No legislative record
Roll-call votes and sponsored bills are collected for members of Congress from congress.gov. There is no roll-call source for this office yet.
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
How they vote
—
No party-unity or ideology scores
Party-unity and DW-NOMINATE ideology scores are only available for candidates with a congressional roll-call record.
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Career & history
2015Member of the State Senate of Kentucky
2015–2023
Public favorability
—
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Donors & money
FEC itemized filings · cycle-to-dateWho funds the campaign.
$1.2M
Raised
$720k
Spent
$455k
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
1% small (<$200)88% large indiv.11% PAC
46% in-state · 54% out-of-state (itemized)
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-04-29 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING. SOURCE: FEC ↗
Race
The contest Alvarado is running in.
KY · HOUSE · 2026tossup
Alvarado (R) vs Zach Dembo (D)
37.5%+0.4 Alvarado37%
Open full race detail →
Related prediction markets
All markets →Live contract prices tied to Alvarado and the seat. Prices are ¢-per-share of the YES outcome; context only, never merged into our polling averages.
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT. · PHOTO: GAGE SKIDMORE · CC BY-SA 3.0 (WIKIMEDIA COMMONS)
Related coverage
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nytimes.com · 2026-07-06
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nytimes.com · 2026-07-02
Kentucky Fourth Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
Republican · KY-6 U.S. House
Ralph Alvarado
Ralph A. Alvarado is an American physician and politician who most recently served as the 15th Commissioner of the Tennessee Department of Health from 2023 until his resignation in 2025. He previously served as a member of the Kentucky Senate, representing Kentucky's 28th Senate district from 2015 to 2023. Upon taking office, he became the first Hispanic person elected to the Kentucky General Assembly.
Where Alvarado standsRace →
Alvarado 37.5%Zach Dembo 37%
Market · wins
72¢
37.5%
Poll avg
72%
Win prob
$1.2M
Raised
In brief
AI · verified vs data · 2026-07-04Ralph A. Alvarado, a physician who served as Tennessee's health commissioner until 2025 and previously represented Kentucky in the State Senate from 2015 to 2023, is running for Kentucky's 6th House district. In polling, he and opponent Zach Dembo are effectively tied at approximately 38% and 37%, respectively. Market odds place his win probability at roughly 70%, and he has raised about $1.2 million for his campaign.
Governing & voting record
—
No legislative record
Roll-call votes and sponsored bills are collected for members of Congress from congress.gov. There is no roll-call source for this office yet.
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
Career & history
2015Member of the State Senate of Kentucky
2015–2023
Public favorability
—
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Independence scorecard
Who Alvarado's money comes from.
C+
49/100
Independence index
A mixed funding picture — small-dollar reliance is the watch item.
2 watch items · small-dollar reliance
Small-dollar reliance2
1% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence56
11% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding46
54% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure91
$119k in outside spending supports the campaign
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
How they vote
—
No party-unity or ideology scores
Party-unity and DW-NOMINATE ideology scores are only available for candidates with a congressional roll-call record.
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Donors & money
$1.2M
Raised
$720k
Spent
$455k
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
1% small (<$200)88% large indiv.11% PAC
46% in-state · 54% out-of-state (itemized)
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-04-29 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING. SOURCE: FEC ↗
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT. · PHOTO: GAGE SKIDMORE · CC BY-SA 3.0 (WIKIMEDIA COMMONS)