Republican primary · May 19, 2026
Kentucky house Republican primary
Ralph Alvarado won the Republican primary on May 19, 2026, advancing to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 4d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Republican primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
Primary result · Republican primary
Official outcome · May 19, 2026 · forecast shown for reference1Ralph AlvaradoRalph A. Alvarado is an American physician and politician who most recently served as the 15th Commissioner of the Tennessee Department of H…
2Ryan Dotson
3Greg Plucinski
4Adam Perez Arquette
5Steve Shannon
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 3 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Alvarado | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 6 | 1892 Polling | 400 · LV | 38 | — |
| Apr 7 | 1892 Polling | — · unknown | 32 | — |
| Feb 11 | 1892 Polling | — · unknown | 21 | — |
Endorsements · Republican primary · 8 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yetRalph Alvarado · 8
RRalph Alvarado8 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials7
Federal 6State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 7
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Damon Thayer · former Majority Leader of the Kentucky Senate (2013–2025) from the 17th district (2003–2025)
- Mike Johnson · speaker of the United States House of Representatives (2023–present), LA-4 (2017–present)
- Brett Guthrie · KY-02 (2009–present)
- Hal Rogers · KY-05 (1981–present)
- Jim Jordan · OH-04 (2007–present)
- Matt Van Epps · TN-07 (2025–present)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- U.S. Chamber of Commerce
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing 2026-05-18Ralph AlvaradoH6KY06192 ↗
Raised
$1.18M
Cash on hand
$455K
Cumulative receipts · 4 filings
Top industries
No industry data.
In the news
31 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
31 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles31
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.23
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.05 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.23
Week-over-weekshift +0.05 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 23%
Neutral 77%
23% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets23%
Neutral77%
R-leaning outlets0%
23% of outlets classified by editorial lean
T
'Pass the SAVE Act or Get Replaced': Kentucky Rep. James Comer's Voter ID Push Sparks Calls to Replace Senate Republicans
N
Kentucky Sixth Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
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MAGA Stooge James Comer Blasts Weak Republicans Over Donald Trump Issue
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Kentucky Fourth Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
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Mitch McConnell's history of health issues explored as EMS dispatch audio suggests Kentucky senator was found unconscious at his house
C
Judicial watchdog is wary of Beshear’s involvement in Kentucky Court of Appeals election
I
Thomas Massie Resolution: House Votes To Expose Lawmakers In Sexual Misconduct Settlements
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Thomas Massie resolution: House votes to expose lawmakers in sexual misconduct settlements
W
Kentucky Rep. Morgan McGarvey criticizes Supreme Court ruling upholding transgender sports bans
A
Kentucky primary election 2026 live results
Page 1 of 4
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 3deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-05-18
Endorsements23 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage31 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks