Races · house · 2026 · Iowa
house · open seat
Sarah Trone Garriott vs Zach Nunn
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 12d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 52% R · market gap 22pp
Polling average rates this race Likely R (R+6.0, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+0.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+16.8 (10th pctile) to D+15.4 (90th pctile), giving R a 52% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
⚠ Model and market disagree sharply. Model says D wins at 48%, market says 70% — 22pp gap (opposite winners). Either side could be wrong — worth a closer look.
CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping · market-disagreement-large
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +0.7
80% CI: R +16.8 → D +15.4 · win prob 48%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 1 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +5.2
80% CI R +15.4 → R +3.9
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +3.0
80% CI R +6.5 → D +0.4
CV MAE 2.71
consensusMarket-implied
D +4.5
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 69¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 27 points more bullish on D than polling. Markets 69% · polls 42%.
All polls · 1 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13 | Ragnar Research Partners+2For · Internal R-aligned | 400 · LV | R-LEAN | — | -3.4decoupled | 42 · 48 |
Endorsements · 30 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet23
7
Endorsements tracked
Sarah Trone Garriott23 · 77%
Zach Nunn7 · 23%
Total30
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DSarah Trone Garriott23 endorsers
Most notable · Brian Meyer · minority leader of the Iowa House of Representatives (2025–present) from the 29th district (2015–present)
Organizations12
Organizations · 12
- American Federation of Government Employees
- DCCC · Red to Blue
- Elect Democratic Women
- Emily's List
- End Citizens United
- Future Forum
- Iron Workers · Local 67
- J Street
- NewDem Action Fund
- Teamsters · Local 238
- Vote Mama
- WelcomePAC
Elected officials9
Federal 5State 2Local 0
Elected officials · 9
- Brian Meyer · minority leader of the Iowa House of Representatives (2025–present) from the 29th district (2015–present)
- Jennifer Konfrst · minority leader of the Iowa House of Representatives (2021–2025) from the 32nd district (2019–present) and former candidate for this district
- Izaah Knox · state senator from the 17th district (2023–present)
- Greg Stanton · AZ-04 (2019–present)
- Lois Frankel · FL-22 (2013–present)
- Suzan DelBene · WA-01 (2012–present)
- Elissa Slotkin · Michigan (2025–present)
- Gabby Giffords · former AZ-08 (2007–2012)
- Megan Srinivas · state representative from the 30th district (2023–present)
Other2
Other · 2
- Giffords
- Human Rights Campaign
RZach Nunn7 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials4
Federal 4State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 4
- Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- JD Vance · 50th vice president of the United States (2025–present)
- Mike Johnson · speaker of the House (2023–present) from LA-04 (2017–present)
- Jim Jordan · OH-04 (2007–present)
Organizations3
Organizations · 3
- AIPAC
- Republican Jewish Coalition
- Turning Point Action
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-23Zach NunnH2IA03119 ↗
Receipts
$4.1M
Disburse
$1.0M
Cash on hand
$3.2M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Sarah Trone GarriottH6IA03268 ↗
Receipts
$3.9M
Disburse
$1.2M
Cash on hand
$2.7M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$15.4K
D side
$2.4K · 16%
R side
$13.0K · 84%
Top spender
THE CONSERVATIVE CA…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| THE CONSERVATIVE CAUCUS DBA AMERICANS FOR CONSTITUTIONAL LIBERTY other · boosts R
| R | $13.0K | 84% | for Zach Nunn |
| ACTIVATE AMERICA super pac · boosts D
| D | $2.4K | 16% | against Zach Nunn |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Lean D1
Lean D · 1 rater
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Tossup2
Tossup · 2 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Tilt R1
Tilt R · 1 rater
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
TossupInside Elections
Tilt RSabato's Crystal Ball
TossupSplit Ticket
Lean DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
14 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
14 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles14
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.43
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.17 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.43
Week-over-weekshift −0.17 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 43%
Neutral 57%
43% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets43%
Neutral57%
R-leaning outlets0%
43% of outlets classified by editorial lean
D
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Radio Iowa/Baseball Coaches Association High School Poll 6/29/26
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Iowa U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls
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Iowa First Congressional District Primary Election Results
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2026 primary election results: Iowa voters decide nominees for State Senate, House
N
Iowa Primary Election Results
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Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified1 / 1deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-23
Endorsements41 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage14 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks