Races · house · 2026 · Florida

house · open seat · provisional matchup

Oliver Larkin vs Republican

Likely matchup — the Republican nominee isn't settled. Shown as a provisional party matchup, not confirmed nominees.

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Likely DD +5.8 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 2 polls · 2 marketsLast poll 11d agoMarkets 11h agoRating today

Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
68% Larkin (D)
32% Republican (R)
Win probability
Oliver Larkin68% (D)
Republican32% (R)
Modelupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +5.8
80% CIR+10.2 → D+21.9
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Predicted final margin D +5.8 · 80% CI R+10.2 → D+21.9 · 3 months 27 days to election

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

3.9%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

D 63¢

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

articles · new

Info · primary pending

The Republican nominee hasn't been chosen yet

2 Republican candidates remain. See the republican primary →
Primary August 18, 2026.

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 15d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely D · model 68% D

Polling average rates this race Likely D (D+9.0, sourced from polls).

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+5.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+10.2 (10th pctile) to D+21.9 (90th pctile), giving D a 68% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.9% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

Uncertainty score: 87/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.

CITATIONS · likely-d · low-tipping · uncertainty-high

How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain

Combined

High uncertainty

Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.

Forecast CI width100

32.2pp 80% interval

Inter-model disagreement29

5.8pp across models

Polling sparsity100

0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +5.8

80% CI: R +10.2 → D +21.9 · win prob 68%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	2
Days to election	118
Residual σ	12.56pt
Generated	7/7/2026

▼ Compare with other models3 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

D +11.7

80% CI D +9.3 → D +13.4

CV MAE 8.51

bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman

D +10.5

80% CI D +7.3 → D +13.7

CV MAE 2.52

consensusMarket-implied

D +2.8

no interval

market-implied

Polling average

POLL DOTSCI BAND
3236404448LARKIN 44.0REPUBLICAN 33.5MAY '26MAY '26MAY '26
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 63¢1 platformupdated 11h ago

DisagreementMarkets are 19 points more bullish on D than polling. Markets 63% · polls 44%.

Cross-platform price · history

55¢60¢65¢70¢75¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7

Per-platform · current

Platform	D YES	R YES	7d Δ	Vol	vs cons
Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the FL-25 House seat?”	63¢	36¢	-1¢	—	+0

All polls · 2 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag

Date	Pollster · trust signals	n · pop	Lean	Bias · track	vs raters	D · R
May 5	Middle SeatFor · Punchbowl News	576 · unknown	NEUTRAL	—	—	43 · 34
May 5	Middle SeatFor · Punchbowl News	576 · unknown	NEUTRAL	—	—	45 · 33

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DOliver Larkin0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RRepublican0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-07-02

George MoraitisOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$698.4K

Disburse

$214.4K

Cash on hand

$483.9K

Debts

$111.1K

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$225.0K

D side

$0 · 0%

R side

$225.0K · 100%

Top spender

—

For / against split

Against Schultz $66.5K

For Singer $158.5K

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Lean D1

Tossup4

Cook Political Report

Tossup

Jun 17

The Economist

Lean D

May 5

Inside Elections

Tossup

Jun 24

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Tossup

Jun 8

Split Ticket

Tossup

Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.