NonpartisanIndependent, data-first coverage of US elections — polls, forecasts, and prediction markets, refreshed daily.Updated daily.What's new·Methodology·Send feedback
Photo of Oliver LarkinD
Public domain
DemocratRunning for FL-25 U.S. House · 2026

Oliver Larkin

The 2026 United States House of Representatives elections in Florida will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the 28 U.S. representatives from the State of Florida, one from each of the state's congressional districts. The elections will coincide with other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The primary elections will take place on August 18, 2026.
In brief
AI · verified vs data · 2026-07-04

Oliver Larkin, a Democrat, is running for the U.S. House seat in Florida's 25th district. In polling, Larkin leads opponent George Moraitis by roughly 10 points, with Larkin at about 44% and Moraitis at around 34%. Market data suggests Larkin has approximately a 60% chance of winning the general election in November.

44%
Polling average
our aggregate
62%
Win probability
market-implied
Governing & voting record
No legislative record
Roll-call votes and sponsored bills are collected for members of Congress from congress.gov. There is no roll-call source for this office yet.
Where they stand
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
How they vote
No party-unity or ideology scores
Party-unity and DW-NOMINATE ideology scores are only available for candidates with a congressional roll-call record.
Ratings from advocacy groups
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Career & history
No career timeline
Career history is built from Wikipedia / Wikidata records. No matching public record was found for this candidate.
Public favorability
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Donors & money
No campaign finance on file
FEC filings appear here once the candidate's committee reports. Early-cycle and self-funding candidates often have nothing on record yet.
Race

The contest Larkin is running in.

FL · HOUSE · 2026likely d
Larkin (D) vs George Moraitis (R)
44%+10.0 Larkin34%
Open full race detail →
Related prediction markets
All markets →

Live contract prices tied to Larkin and the seat. Prices are ¢-per-share of the YES outcome; context only, never merged into our polling averages.

Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT. · PHOTO: CUT FROM THE UPLOADIMAGE.NET BY THE AUTHOR OF XRMAP. · PUBLIC DOMAIN (WIKIMEDIA COMMONS)
Related coverage
N
nytimes.com · 2026-07-02
Florida Governor Election 2026: Latest Polls
N
nytimes.com · 2026-07-01
Florida 13th Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
N
nytimes.com · 2026-06-30
Florida U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls
N
nytimes.com · 2026-06-30
Florida Seventh Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
Photo of Oliver LarkinD
Democrat · FL-25 U.S. House

Oliver Larkin

The 2026 United States House of Representatives elections in Florida will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the 28 U.S. representatives from the State of Florida, one from each of the state's congressional districts. The elections will coincide with other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The primary elections will take place on August 18, 2026.

Where Larkin standsRace →
Larkin 44%George Moraitis 34%
Market · wins
62¢
44%
Poll avg
62%
Win prob
In brief
AI · verified vs data · 2026-07-04

Oliver Larkin, a Democrat, is running for the U.S. House seat in Florida's 25th district. In polling, Larkin leads opponent George Moraitis by roughly 10 points, with Larkin at about 44% and Moraitis at around 34%. Market data suggests Larkin has approximately a 60% chance of winning the general election in November.

Governing & voting record
No legislative record
Roll-call votes and sponsored bills are collected for members of Congress from congress.gov. There is no roll-call source for this office yet.
Where they stand
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
Career & history
No career timeline
Career history is built from Wikipedia / Wikidata records. No matching public record was found for this candidate.
Public favorability
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
How they vote
No party-unity or ideology scores
Party-unity and DW-NOMINATE ideology scores are only available for candidates with a congressional roll-call record.
Ratings from advocacy groups
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Donors & money
No campaign finance on file
FEC filings appear here once the candidate's committee reports. Early-cycle and self-funding candidates often have nothing on record yet.
Race
FL · HOUSE · 2026likely d
Larkin (D) vs George Moraitis (R)
44%+10.0 Larkin34%
Open full race detail →
Related prediction markets
All markets →
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT. · PHOTO: CUT FROM THE UPLOADIMAGE.NET BY THE AUTHOR OF XRMAP. · PUBLIC DOMAIN (WIKIMEDIA COMMONS)