Democratic primary · August 18, 2026
Florida house Democratic primary
Field of 1 Democratic candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 15d ago, but only 1 poll has landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Democratic primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
80
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (21.8pp).
Forecast CI width73
21.8pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution73 / 100
Measured21.8pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity88
1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution88 / 100
Measured1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Democratic primary
primary-struct-v1 · medium confidence · 2 polls + fundamentals1Debbie Wasserman Schultz
2Jared Moskowitz
3Oliver LarkinThe 2026 United States House of Representatives elections in Florida will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the 28 U.S. representatives …
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 2 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Larkin | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 25 | Beacon Insights | 728 · LV | 19 | — |
| May 5 | Middle Seat | 388 · unknown | 7 | — |
Endorsements · Democratic primary · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yetDOliver Larkin0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing 2026-07-02In the news
12 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
12 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles12
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.42
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +1.00 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.42
Week-over-weekshift +1.00 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 42%
Neutral 58%
42% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets42%
Neutral58%
R-leaning outlets0%
42% of outlets classified by editorial lean
N
Florida Governor Election 2026: Latest Polls
N
Florida 13th Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
N
Florida U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls
N
Florida Seventh Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
F
Poll shows Donald Trump underwater in home state of Florida heading into Midterms
S
Bruising primary ahead with Wasserman Schultz facing four Democratic challengers
P
DeSantis zings Florida GOP over lack of governor primary debates
S
As midterms near, poll finds one in five Hispanic voters in Florida rethinking support for Trump
G
Gun Owners of America Endorses Byron Donalds for Florida Governor
S
Attempt to unify around one Black candidate against Wasserman Schultz in Florida’s 20th District falters
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Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 2deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-07-02
Endorsements49 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage12 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks