Races · house · 2026 · California
house · open seat
Lauren Babb Tomlinson vs Michael Stansfield
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean D · model 94% D
Polling average rates this race Lean D (D+3.0, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+19.3 with an 80% CI ranging from D+3.2 (10th pctile) to D+35.4 (90th pctile), giving D a 94% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 100/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · lean-d · low-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
100
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement74
14.8pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution74 / 100
Measured14.8pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +19.3
80% CI: D +3.3 → D +35.4 · win prob 94%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 1 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +12.8
80% CI R +25.0 → D +18.8
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +4.6
80% CI D +0.9 → D +8.3
CV MAE 2.88
consensusMarket-implied
D +15.1
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Latest poll · 7 candidatesThis race has 7 polled candidates — too many for a readable time-series chart. Showing the latest aggregated polling average per candidate instead. The All polls table below has full per-poll detail.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 94¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 83 points more bullish on D than polling. Markets 94% · polls 11%.
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the CA-06 House seat?” | 94¢ | 4¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
All polls · 1 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 5 | EMC Research+1For · Internal D-aligned | 400 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 11 · 8 |
Endorsements · 51 total
Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet25
Endorsements tracked
Lauren Babb Tomlinson25 · 100%
Michael Stansfield0 · 0%
Total25
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DLauren Babb Tomlinson25 endorsers
Most notable · David Hogg · former vice chair of the Democratic National Committee (2025)
Organizations13
Organizations · 13
- California Environmental Voters
- Congressional Black Caucus PAC
- Congressional Progressive Caucus · PAC
- Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC
- Courage California
- EMILYs List
- Elect Democratic Women
- End Citizens United
- J Street
- Leaders We Deserve
- National Union of Healthcare Workers
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Vote Mama
Elected officials12
Federal 11State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 12
- David Hogg · former vice chair of the Democratic National Committee (2025)
- Greg Casar · TX-35 (2023–present)
- Gregory Meeks · NY-05 (1998–present)
- Janelle Bynum · OR-05 (2025–present)
- Jasmine Crockett · TX-30 (2023–present)
- LaMonica McIver · NJ-10 (2024–present)
- Lateefah Simon · CA-12 (2025–present)
- Lois Frankel · FL-22 (2013–present)
- Maxwell Frost · FL-10 (2023–present)
- Pramila Jayapal · WA-07 (2017–present)
- Sydney Kamlager-Dove · CA-37 (2023–present)
- Barbara Lee · former CA-12 (1998–2025)
DRichard Pan17 endorsers
Most notable · Dave Min · CA-47 (2025–present)
Organizations10
Organizations · 10
- 314 Action
- AFSCME · California
- ASPIRE PAC
- California Faculty Association
- California Federation of Labor Unions
- J Street
- National Union of Healthcare Workers
- SEIU · California
- SEIU United Healthcare Workers West
- United Nurses Association of California
Elected officials6
Federal 6State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 6
- Dave Min · CA-47 (2025–present)
- Judy Chu · CA-28 (2009–present)
- Kevin Mullin · CA-15 (2023–present)
- Luz Rivas · CA-29 (2025–present)
- Norma Torres · CA-35 (2015–present)
- Ro Khanna · CA-17 (2017–present)
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- The Sacramento Bee
DThien Ho6 endorsers
Most notable · Adam Gray · CA-13 (2025–present)
Elected officials5
Federal 2State 2Local 1
Elected officials · 5
- Adam Gray · CA-13 (2025–present)
- Derek Tran · CA-45 (2025–present)
- Jim Cooper · sheriff of Sacramento County (2022–present) and former state assemblymember from the 9th district (2014–2022)
- Kevin McCarty · mayor of Sacramento (2024–present)
- Stephanie Nguyen · state assemblymember from the 10th district (2022–present)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Blue Dog PAC
DMartha Guerrero3 endorsers
Most notable · Richard Polanco · former majority leader of the California State Senate (1998–2002) from the 22nd district (1994–2002)
Elected officials2
Federal 0State 1Local 1
Elected officials · 2
- Richard Polanco · former majority leader of the California State Senate (1998–2002) from the 22nd district (1994–2002)
- Gil Cedillo · former Los Angeles City Councilor from the 1st district (2013–2022)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Center for Biological Diversity · Action Fund
IKevin Kiley0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RMichael Stansfield0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DTyler Vandenberg0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-02Richard PanH6CA03158 ↗
Receipts
$687.8K
Disburse
$569.8K
Cash on hand
$118.0K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Lauren Babb TomlinsonH6CA06276 ↗
Receipts
$471.9K
Disburse
$364.1K
Cash on hand
$107.8K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Thien Ho
No FEC committee filing yet.
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Kevin KileyH2CA03157 ↗
Receipts
$2.7M
Disburse
$1.1M
Cash on hand
$2.0M
Debts
$4.9K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$1.6M
D side
$1.6M · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
314 Action Fund
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 314 Action Fund super pac · boosts D
| D | $1.3M | 76% | for Richard Pan |
| Leaders We Deserve super pac · boosts D
| D | $474.9K | 29% | for Lauren Babb Tomlinson |
| Crush MAGA PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $302.3K | 18% | for Lauren Babb Tomlinson |
| Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC other · boosts D
| D | $300.0K | 18% | for Lauren Babb Tomlinson |
| Rolling Sea Action Fund super pac · boosts D
| D | $275.0K | 17% | for Lauren Babb Tomlinson |
| INCLUSION PAC other · boosts D
| D | $201.0K | 12% | for Thien Ho |
| Health Care Saves Lives other · boosts D
| D | $194.5K | 12% | for Richard Pan |
| AMERICAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE other · boosts D
| D | $150.1K | 9% | for Richard Pan |
| Medicare For All other · boosts D
| D | $149.9K | 9% | for Lauren Babb Tomlinson |
| SEIU COPE (Service Employees International Union Committee On Political Education) other · boosts D
| D | $48.8K | 3% | for Richard Pan |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D3
Safe D · 3 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- The Economist · May 5
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Likely D1
Likely D · 1 rater
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Lean D1
Lean D · 1 rater
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DThe Economist
Safe DInside Elections
Lean DSabato's Crystal Ball
Likely DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
10 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
10 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles10
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.40
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.17 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.40
Week-over-weekshift +0.17 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 40%
Neutral 60%
40% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets40%
Neutral60%
R-leaning outlets0%
40% of outlets classified by editorial lean
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Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified1 / 1deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-02
Endorsements51 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage10 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks