Races · house · 2026 · California
house · open seat
Esther Kim Varet vs Ken Calvert
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 32d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean R · model 89% R
Polling average rates this race Lean R (R+4.0, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+15.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+31.4 (10th pctile) to D+0.7 (90th pctile), giving R a 89% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 100/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · lean-r · low-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
100
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement76
15.2pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution76 / 100
Measured15.2pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +15.4
80% CI: R +31.4 → D +0.7 · win prob 11%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 2 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +7.0
80% CI R +15.2 → R +5.1
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +0.2
80% CI R +2.6 → D +2.3
CV MAE 1.89
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 2 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18 | Tulchin Research+1For · Internal D-aligned | 800 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 44 · 44 |
| Jan 18 | Tulchin Research+1For · Internal D-aligned | 800 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 43 · 44 |
Endorsements · 32 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet17
Endorsements tracked
Esther Kim Varet0 · 0%
Young Kim17 · 100%
Total17
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RYoung Kim17 endorsers
Most notable · Brian Jones · minority leader of the California State Senate (2022–present) from the 40th district (2018–present)
Elected officials10
Federal 8State 2Local 0
Elected officials · 10
- Brian Jones · minority leader of the California State Senate (2022–present) from the 40th district (2018–present)
- Eleni Kounalakis · lieutenant governor of California (2019–present)
- Jasmine Crockett · TX-30 (2023–present)
- Laura Friedman · CA-30 (2025–present)
- Marilyn Strickland · WA-10 (2021–present)
- Zoe Lofgren · CA-18 (1994–present)
- Dean Phillips · former MN-03 (2019–2025)
- Ed Royce · former CA-39 (1993–2019)
- Gil Cisneros · CA-39 (2019–2021), CA-31 (2025–present)
- Harley Rouda · former CA-48 (2019–2021)
Organizations6
Organizations · 6
- ASPIRE PAC
- Center for Biological Diversity · Action Fund
- Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- Maggie's List
- Vote Mama
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- Orange County Register
RKen Calvert15 endorsers
Most notable · Devin Nunes · chair of the President's Intelligence Advisory Board (2025–present)
Elected officials14
Federal 12State 1Local 1
Elected officials · 14
- Devin Nunes · chair of the President's Intelligence Advisory Board (2025–present)
- Brandon Gill · TX-26 (2025-present)
- Buck McKeon · former CA-25 (1993–2015)
- Dana Rohrabacher · former CA-48 (1989–2019)
- Donald Wagner · Orange County supervisor from the 3rd district (2019–present)
- Doug Ose · former CA-03 (1999–2005)
- Duncan D. Hunter · former CA-50 (2009–2020)
- Duncan L. Hunter · former CA-52 (1981–2009)
- Gary Miller · former CA-31 (1999–2015)
- John Duarte · former CA-13 (2023–2025)
- Kate Sanchez · state assemblymember from the 71st district (2022–present)
- Mary Bono · former CA-45 (1998–2013)
- Mike Garcia · former CA-27 (2020–2025)
- Mimi Walters · former CA-45 (2015–2019)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Log Cabin Republicans
DEsther Kim Varet0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-04Young KimH8CA39240 ↗
Receipts
$8.2M
Disburse
$6.9M
Cash on hand
$3.1M
Debts
$22.5K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Esther Kim VaretH6CA40309 ↗
Receipts
$2.9M
Disburse
$2.6M
Cash on hand
$265.6K
Debts
$449.6K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Ken CalvertH2CA37023 ↗
Receipts
$5.7M
Disburse
$3.6M
Cash on hand
$2.4M
Debts
$29.9K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$2.0M
D side
$1.1M · 57%
R side
$850.3K · 43%
Top spender
CALIFORNIA BLUE PAC
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CALIFORNIA BLUE PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $701.5K | 36% | for Esther Kim Varet |
| CFF other · boosts D
| D | $573.9K | 29% | against Ken Calvert |
| America's Credit Unions PAC of Credit Union National Association, Inc. pac · boosts R
| R | $500.0K | 26% | for Young Kim |
| Western Blue PAC other · boosts D
| D | $350.0K | 18% | for Esther Kim Varet |
| Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. (AFP Action) DBA CVA Action and DBA LIBRE Action super pac · boosts R
| R | $290.1K | 15% | for Young Kim |
| National Association of Realtors Political Action Committee pac · boosts R
| R | $57.0K | 3% | for Young Kim |
| Americans 4 Security PAC other · boosts R
| R | $51.5K | 3% | for Ken Calvert |
| RISING TIDE COLLECTIVE other · boosts D
| D | $51.0K | 3% | for Esther Kim Varet |
| CALIFORNIA CONSERVATIVES PAC other · boosts R
| R | $26.5K | 1% | for Ken Calvert |
| PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH PAC other · boosts R
| R | $12.8K | 1% | for Ken Calvert |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely R1
Likely R · 1 rater
- The Economist · May 5
Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RThe Economist
Likely RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
11 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
11 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles11
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.45
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.17 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.45
Week-over-weekshift −0.17 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 45%
Neutral 55%
45% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets45%
Neutral55%
R-leaning outlets0%
45% of outlets classified by editorial lean
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Page 1 of 2
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified2 / 2deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-04
Endorsements48 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage11 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks