Races · house · 2026 · California · general · Republican primary

Republican primary · June 2, 2026

California house Republican primary

Field of 2 Republican candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.

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Primary passed· 0 polls

Ken Calvert 56% to win the Republican nominationupdated 11h ago · primary-struct-v1

Ken Calvert · 56%Young Kim · 44%

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 32d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Showing the Republican primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.

How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain

Combined

High uncertainty

Main driver: wide vote-share CI (12.1pp).

Forecast CI width40

12.1pp 80% interval

Polling sparsity100

0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8

Forecast · Republican primary

primary-struct-v1 · high confidence · 4 polls + fundamentals

1Ken CalvertKenneth Stanton Calvert is an American businessman and politician serving as the U.S. representative for California's 41st congressional dis…27.5% 21–3456% win

2Young KimYoung Oak Kim is a South Korean–born American politician and businesswoman serving as the U.S. representative for California's 40th congress…26.5% 21–3344% win

Polling average

POLL DOTSCI BAND
4042444648CALVERT 44.0KIM 44.0JAN '26JAN '26JAN '26
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 0 results

Republican primary polls

No polls have been published for this primary yet. When pollsters start covering the race, individual polls will be listed here with sample size, lean, and trust signals.