Primary · June 2, 2026
California house primary
Field of 3 candidates running on a single ballot (jungle / nonpartisan format). Top finishers advance to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 32d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
78
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (16.7pp).
Forecast CI width56
16.7pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution56 / 100
Measured16.7pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · primary
primary-struct-v1 · high confidence · 4 polls + fundamentals1Ken CalvertKenneth Stanton Calvert is an American businessman and politician serving as the U.S. representative for California's 41st congressional dis…
2Young KimYoung Oak Kim is a South Korean–born American politician and businesswoman serving as the U.S. representative for California's 40th congress…
↑ top 2 advance to November · ↓ eliminated
3Esther Kim VaretEsther Jin Kim Varet is an American art dealer and gallerist, best known as the founder and director of the contemporary art gallery Various…
4Joe Kerr
5Lisa Ramirez
Same-party general possibleThe two front-runners are both Republicans. If that holds, November is a R-vs-R general — which the general view colors by candidate, not party.
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 2 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Calvert | Kim | Varet | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 3 | Tulchin Research | 500 · LV | 24 | 22 | 20 | +2 |
| Jan 26 | Public Opinion Strategies | 400 · LV | 22 | 23 | 14 | +1 |
Endorsements · primary · 32 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yetYoung Kim · 17Ken Calvert · 15
RYoung Kim17 endorsers
Most notable · Brian Jones · minority leader of the California State Senate (2022–present) from the 40th district (2018–present)
Elected officials10
Federal 8State 2Local 0
Elected officials · 10
- Brian Jones · minority leader of the California State Senate (2022–present) from the 40th district (2018–present)
- Eleni Kounalakis · lieutenant governor of California (2019–present)
- Jasmine Crockett · TX-30 (2023–present)
- Laura Friedman · CA-30 (2025–present)
- Marilyn Strickland · WA-10 (2021–present)
- Zoe Lofgren · CA-18 (1994–present)
- Dean Phillips · former MN-03 (2019–2025)
- Ed Royce · former CA-39 (1993–2019)
- Gil Cisneros · CA-39 (2019–2021), CA-31 (2025–present)
- Harley Rouda · former CA-48 (2019–2021)
Organizations6
Organizations · 6
- ASPIRE PAC
- Center for Biological Diversity · Action Fund
- Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- Maggie's List
- Vote Mama
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- Orange County Register
RKen Calvert15 endorsers
Most notable · Devin Nunes · chair of the President's Intelligence Advisory Board (2025–present)
Elected officials14
Federal 12State 1Local 1
Elected officials · 14
- Devin Nunes · chair of the President's Intelligence Advisory Board (2025–present)
- Brandon Gill · TX-26 (2025-present)
- Buck McKeon · former CA-25 (1993–2015)
- Dana Rohrabacher · former CA-48 (1989–2019)
- Donald Wagner · Orange County supervisor from the 3rd district (2019–present)
- Doug Ose · former CA-03 (1999–2005)
- Duncan D. Hunter · former CA-50 (2009–2020)
- Duncan L. Hunter · former CA-52 (1981–2009)
- Gary Miller · former CA-31 (1999–2015)
- John Duarte · former CA-13 (2023–2025)
- Kate Sanchez · state assemblymember from the 71st district (2022–present)
- Mary Bono · former CA-45 (1998–2013)
- Mike Garcia · former CA-27 (2020–2025)
- Mimi Walters · former CA-45 (2015–2019)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Log Cabin Republicans
DEsther Kim Varet0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing 2026-06-04Lisa Ramirez
Raised
$519K
Cash on hand
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Joe Kerr
Raised
$255K
Cash on hand
$34K
Top industries
No industry data.
Claude Manuel Keissieh
Raised
$34K
Cash on hand
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
In the news
11 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
11 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles11
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.45
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.17 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.45
Week-over-weekshift −0.17 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 45%
Neutral 55%
45% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets45%
Neutral55%
R-leaning outlets0%
45% of outlets classified by editorial lean
A
Election results 2026: Live updates for the California Primary Election
N
Highlights From June 2 Primary Election Day in California
N
California 40th Congressional District Primary Election Results
A
California Primary Results 2026: House and Governor
N
California 40th Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
T
California governor race: results and polls for 2026 election
N
California 22nd Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
N
California 11th Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
P
How Election Reform Played Out in California’s June Primary
N
Progressive Randy Villegas’ Chances of Winning California House Race
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Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 2deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-04
Endorsements48 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage11 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks