Races · house · 2026 · Arizona
house · open seat
JoAnna Mendoza vs Juan Ciscomani
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 3d ago, but only 1 poll has landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean D · model 57% D · market gap 24pp
Polling average rates this race Lean D (D+2.5, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+2.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+13.7 (10th pctile) to D+18.5 (90th pctile), giving D a 57% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.9% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 86/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
⚠ Model and market disagree sharply. Model says D wins at 57%, market says 81% — 24pp gap. Either side could be wrong — worth a closer look.
CITATIONS · lean-d · low-tipping · uncertainty-high · market-disagreement-large
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
86
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement31
6.3pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution31 / 100
Measured6.3pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity88
1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution88 / 100
Measured1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +2.4
80% CI: R +13.7 → D +18.5 · win prob 57%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 3 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +3.9
80% CI R +9.9 → D +2.1
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +1.6
80% CI R +1.3 → D +4.5
CV MAE 2.24
consensusMarket-implied
D +7.6
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 80¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 33 points more bullish on D than polling. Markets 80% · polls 47%.
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
1 polls · through Jun 11, 2026 · latest Normington, Petts & Associates
JoAnna Mendoza
VoteHub47.0%
VoteHub
Polling average47.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg47.0%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average47.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.0 pt above our average
Juan Ciscomani
VoteHub45.0%
VoteHub
Polling average45.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg45.0%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average45.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.0 pt above our average
VoteHub's independent average across 1 polls (through Jun 11, 2026): JoAnna Mendoza 47.0%, Juan Ciscomani 45.0%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 3 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 10, 26 | Normington PettsFor · Internal D-aligned | 500 · LV | D-LEAN | — | — | 47 · 45 |
| Mar 13, 26 | Ragnar Research Partners+2For · Internal R-aligned | 400 · LV | R-LEAN | — | -3.4decoupled | 47 · 44 |
| Oct 14, 25 | Public Policy Polling+2For · Internal D-aligned | 581 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.9104 tracked | +2.4noisy | 42 · 41 |
Endorsements · 46 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet41
5
Endorsements tracked
JoAnna Mendoza41 · 89%
Juan Ciscomani5 · 11%
Total46
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DJoAnna Mendoza41 endorsers
Most notable · Maura Sullivan · former assistant to the secretary of defense for public affairs (2015)
Organizations23
Organizations · 23
- Congressional Hispanic Caucus BOLD PAC
- DCCC · Red to Blue
- Democrats for Education Reform
- EMILYs List
- Elect Democratic Women
- End Citizens United
- Equality PAC
- Giffords
- Human Rights Campaign
- J Street
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- LGBTQ+ Victory Fund
- LPAC
- Latino Victory · Fund
- League of Conservation Voters · Action Fund
- National Education Association
- New Democrat Coalition
- PODER PAC
- Population Connection
- Reproductive Freedom for All
- Stonewall Democratic Club
- Vote Mama
- Vote Vets
Elected officials18
Federal 17State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 18
- Maura Sullivan · former assistant to the secretary of defense for public affairs (2015)
- Chris Deluzio · PA-17 (2023–present)
- Emily Randall · WA-06 (2025–present)
- Greg Stanton · AZ-04 (2019–present)
- Jason Crow · CO-06 (2019–present)
- Linda Sánchez · CA-38 (2003–present)
- Mark Takano · CA-39 (2013–present)
- Ritchie Torres · NY-15 (2021–present)
- Ro Khanna · CA-17 (2017–present)
- Seth Moulton · MA-06 (2015–present)
- Suzan DelBene · WA-01 (2012–present)
- Gabby Giffords · former AZ-08 (2007–2012)
- Mark Kelly · Arizona (2020–present)
- Max Rose · former NY-11 (2019–2021)
- Patrick Murphy · former under secretary of the army (2016–2017)
- Ron Barber · former AZ-02 (2012–2015)
- Ruben Gallego · Arizona (2025–present)
- Tom O'Halleran · former AZ-01 (2017–2023)
RJuan Ciscomani5 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Organizations3
Organizations · 3
- AIPAC
- Green Party of Arizona
- Republican Jewish Coalition
Elected officials2
Federal 2State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 2
- Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Mike Johnson · speaker of the House (2023–present) from LA-04 (2017–present)
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-07-01Juan CiscomaniH2AZ02360 ↗
Receipts
$5.1M
Disburse
$1.5M
Cash on hand
$3.8M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
JoAnna MendozaH6AZ06099 ↗
Receipts
$5.3M
Disburse
$1.8M
Cash on hand
$3.5M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$22.8K
D side
$22.8K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
LCV Victory Fund
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LCV Victory Fund other · boosts D
| D | $9.5K | 41% | against Juan Ciscomani |
| Youth Save Democracy PAC pac · boosts D
| D | $6.5K | 28% | against Juan Ciscomani |
| HMP super pac · boosts D
| D | $4.3K | 19% | against Juan Ciscomani |
| ACTIVATE AMERICA super pac · boosts D
| D | $1.4K | 6% | against Juan Ciscomani |
| Indivisible Project Inc. pac · boosts D
| D | $1.2K | 5% | against Juan Ciscomani |
| GIVEGREEN UNITED ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $90.66 | 0% | for JoAnna Mendoza |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely D1
Likely D · 1 rater
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Lean D1
Lean D · 1 rater
- The Economist · May 5
Tossup3
Tossup · 3 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Cook Political Report
TossupThe Economist
Lean DInside Elections
TossupSabato's Crystal Ball
TossupSplit Ticket
Likely DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
47 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles47
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.06
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.18 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.06
Week-over-weekshift −0.18 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 11%
Neutral 85%
R 4%
15% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets11%
Neutral85%
R-leaning outlets4%
15% of outlets classified by editorial lean
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Page 1 of 4
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified3 / 3deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-07-01
Endorsements46 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks