Races · house · 2026 · Arizona
house · open seat
Jonathan Nez vs Eli Crane
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 1 poll has landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean R · model 82% R · market gap 20pp
Polling average rates this race Lean R (R+3.0, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+11.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+27.5 (10th pctile) to D+4.7 (90th pctile), giving R a 82% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 98/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
Model and market disagree: Model says D wins at 18%, market says 38% — 20pp gap.
CITATIONS · lean-r · low-tipping · uncertainty-high · market-disagreement-medium
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
98
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement62
12.5pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution62 / 100
Measured12.5pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity88
1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution88 / 100
Measured1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +11.4
80% CI: R +27.5 → D +4.7 · win prob 18%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 1 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +15.5
80% CI R +17.7 → R +13.4
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +3.0
80% CI R +7.7 → D +1.7
CV MAE 3.66
consensusMarket-implied
R +2.8
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 38¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 3 points less bullish on D than polling. Markets 38% · polls 41%.
All polls · 1 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 14 | GBAO+1For · Internal D-aligned | 500 · LV | D-LEAN | — | +9.3d lean | 41 · 44 |
Endorsements · 20 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet17
3
Endorsements tracked
Jonathan Nez17 · 85%
Eli Crane3 · 15%
Total20
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DJonathan Nez17 endorsers
Most notable · Kris Mayes · attorney general of Arizona (2023–present)
Elected officials14
Federal 12State 1Local 1
Elected officials · 14
- Kris Mayes · attorney general of Arizona (2023–present)
- Greg Stanton · AZ-04 (2019–present)
- Jason Crow · CO-06 (2019–present)
- Melanie Stansbury · NM-01 (2021–present)
- Suzan DelBene · WA-01 (2012–present)
- Teresa Leger Fernández · NM-03 (2021–present)
- Yassamin Ansari · AZ-03 (2025–present)
- Ann Kirkpatrick · former AZ-02 (2019–2023), AZ-01 (2009–2011, 2013–2017)
- Coconino County · oconino County attorney (2025–present)
- Deb Haaland · former U.S. Secretary of the Interior (2021–2025)
- Karan English · former AZ-06 (1993–1995)
- Mark Kelly · Arizona (2020–present)
- Ruben Gallego · Arizona (2025–present)
- Tom O'Halleran · former AZ-01 (2017–2023)
Organizations3
Organizations · 3
- DCCC · Red to Blue
- Human Rights Campaign
- NewDem Action Fund
REli Crane3 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Organizations2
Organizations · 2
- Club for Growth · PAC
- Turning Point Action
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-03Eli CraneH2AZ01354 ↗
Receipts
$7.4M
Disburse
$5.4M
Cash on hand
$2.3M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Jonathan NezH4AZ02184 ↗
Receipts
$2.3M
Disburse
$1.0M
Cash on hand
$1.4M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$45.3K
D side
$4.1K · 9%
R side
$41.2K · 91%
Top spender
FREEDOM CAUCUS FUND
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FREEDOM CAUCUS FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $14.7K | 32% | for Eli Crane |
| SENATE CONSERVATIVES ACTION super pac · boosts R
| R | $10.8K | 24% | for Eli Crane |
| HOUSE FREEDOM ACTION super pac · boosts R
| R | $10.0K | 22% | for Eli Crane |
| Club for Growth PAC pac · boosts R
| R | $5.1K | 11% | for Eli Crane |
| WESTERN STATES REGIONAL COUNCIL OF CARPENTERS LEGISLATIVE IMPROVEMENT CMTE UNITED BROTHERHOOD OF CARPENTERS & JOINERS OF AMERICA pac · boosts D
| D | $3.7K | 8% | for Jonathan Nez |
| SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND pac · boosts R
| R | $689.47 | 2% | for Eli Crane |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Tossup1
Tossup · 1 rater
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Lean R1
Lean R · 1 rater
- The Economist · May 5
Likely R3
Likely R · 3 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Cook Political Report
Likely RThe Economist
Lean RInside Elections
Likely RSabato's Crystal Ball
Likely RSplit Ticket
TossupDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
55 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles55
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.07
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.15 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.07
Week-over-weekshift −0.15 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 9%
Neutral 89%
R 2%
11% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets9%
Neutral89%
R-leaning outlets2%
11% of outlets classified by editorial lean
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Page 1 of 4
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified1 / 1deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-03
Endorsements20 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks