Races · house · 2026 · Arizona
house · open seat
Arizona house
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 10d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely D · model 53% D · market gap 22pp
With limited polling, prediction markets imply Likely D (D win prob 75%, market-derived).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+0.9 with an 80% CI ranging from R+15.2 (10th pctile) to D+17.0 (90th pctile), giving D a 53% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.9% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 84/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
⚠ Model and market disagree sharply. Model says D wins at 53%, market says 75% — 22pp gap. Either side could be wrong — worth a closer look.
CITATIONS · likely-d · low-tipping · uncertainty-high · market-disagreement-large
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
84
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement22
4.3pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution22 / 100
Measured4.3pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +0.9
80% CI: R +15.2 → D +17.0 · win prob 53%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +3.1
80% CI R +17.6 → D +1.1
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +1.3
80% CI R +2.2 → D +4.8
CV MAE 2.73
consensusMarket-implied
D +6.0
no interval
market-implied
Endorsements · 1 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet1
Endorsements tracked
Democrat0 · 0%
Joseph Chaplik1 · 100%
Total1
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RJoseph Chaplik1 endorser
Most notable · Barry Goldwater Jr. · former CA-20 (1969–1983)
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Barry Goldwater Jr. · former CA-20 (1969–1983)
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-07-03Joseph ChaplikH6AZ01454 ↗
Receipts
$417.5K
Disburse
$151.8K
Cash on hand
$265.7K
Debts
$250.0K
Cumulative receipts · 2 filings
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$1.1M
D side
$975.7K · 86%
R side
$152.7K · 14%
Top spender
CONSERVATIVES FOR E…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CONSERVATIVES FOR EFFECTIVE GOVERNMENT other · boosts D
| D | $60.0K | 5% | against Joseph Chaplik |
| ARIZONA QUALITY PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $43.4K | 4% | for Joseph Chaplik |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely D2
Likely D · 2 raters
- The Economist · May 6
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Tossup3
Tossup · 3 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Cook Political Report
TossupThe Economist
Likely DInside Elections
TossupSabato's Crystal Ball
TossupSplit Ticket
Likely DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
22 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
22 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles22
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.14
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.22 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.14
Week-over-weekshift −0.22 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 14%
Neutral 86%
14% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets14%
Neutral86%
R-leaning outlets0%
14% of outlets classified by editorial lean
K
Arizona candidate picked centrism over democratic socialism. Will it work with primary voters?
A
How do I find my polling location in Arizona?
N
Arizona Second Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
Y
Pima County Republicans challenges Arizona rules on electioneering at polling sites
K
The 2020 presidential election looms large in Arizona's 2026 governor's race
F
2026 Election: Congressional District 1 GOP Arizona Primary debate
N
Arizona Governor Election 2026: Latest Polls
Y
Arizona swing-district GOP congressional candidates will square off
A
Your voter guide: Arizona primary election 2026
K
Democrats debate for CD-1 as Amish Shah leads polls
Page 1 of 3
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-07-03
Endorsements29 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage22 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks