Races · house · 2026 · AZ
house · open seat

JoAnna Mendoza vs Juan Ciscomani

← AR house AZ house →
Lean D D +3.0 · 176 days to election · 2 polls · 0 markets Last poll 57d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 2 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Lean D · model 59% R

lean-d · uncertainty-high
Forecast · poliagg-v8
Predicted final margin
R +3.0
80% CI: R +20.5 → D +14.5 · win prob 41%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used2
Days to election181
Residual σ13.66pt
Generated5/6/2026
▼ Compare with other models1 models
poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)
R +3.0
80% CI R +20.5 → D +14.5
CV MAE 13.66

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
|Toggle:

All polls · 2 results

2 of 2 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
3/14/2026Ragnar Research Partners1.00R400±5.0LV
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+2
  • commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 80 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Juan Ciscomani 44.0 · JoAnna Mendoza 47.0pollarch
10/15/2025Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)581—LV
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned207d old+3
  • commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • 207d old
    Poll was fielded 207 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Juan Ciscomani 41.0 · JoAnna Mendoza 42.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Tossup Jun 25 +3.0 0.0 +3.0
Inside Elections Tossup Oct 1 +3.0 0.0 +3.0
Sabato's Crystal Ball Tossup Jul 10 +3.0 0.0 +3.0

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 8 weeks ago (3/14/2026) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (2 changes)
  • 5/6/2026 Lean D D+3.0 via polls held 2d
  • 5/4/2026 Tossup via pvi

In the news

News links surfaced via GDELT (a multi-source global news index). External links open in a new tab; we don't rehost article content.