Republican primary · July 21, 2026
Arizona house Republican primary
Field of 3 Republican candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 10d ago, but only 2 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Republican primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
60
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (13.5pp).
Forecast CI width45
13.5pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution45 / 100
Measured13.5pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity75
2 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution75 / 100
Measured2 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Republican primary
primary-struct-v1 · high confidence · 3 polls + fundamentals1Joseph ChaplikJoseph Chaplik is an American Republican politician who served as a member of the Arizona House of Representatives from the 3rd legislative …
2Jay FeelyThomas James Feely is an American former professional football player and politician. He started his playing career as a placekicker with th…
3John TroboughThe 2026 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect nine U.S. representatives fr…
All polls · 3 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Chaplik | Feely | Trobough | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 16 | NextGenP | 695 · unknown | 23 | 25 | 6 | +2 |
| May 12 | Advanced Targeting Research | 400 · LV | 29 | 9 | 5 | +20 |
| Apr 15 | NextGenP | 409 · LV | 24 | 15 | 6 | +9 |
Endorsements · Republican primary · 14 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yetJay Feely · 13Joseph Chaplik · 1
RJay Feely13 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials11
Federal 10State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 11
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Steve Scalise · House majority leader (2023–present) from LA-01 (2008–present)
- Tom Emmer · House majority whip (2023–present) from MN-06 (2015–present)
- Mike Johnson · speaker of the House (2023–present) from LA-04 (2017–present)
- Jim Jordan · OH-04 (2007–present)
- Juan Ciscomani · AZ-06 (2023–present)
- Lisa McClain · MI-09 (2021–present)
- Richard Hudson · NC-09 (2013–present)
- Barry Goldwater Jr. · former CA-20 (1969–1983)
- John Shadegg · former AZ-03 (1995–2011)
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr. · secretary of health and human services (2025–present)
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Danica Patrick · former NASCAR driver
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- NRCC · MAGA Majority
RJoseph Chaplik1 endorser
Most notable · Barry Goldwater Jr. · former CA-20 (1969–1983)
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Barry Goldwater Jr. · former CA-20 (1969–1983)
RJohn Trobough0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing 2026-07-03Jay FeelyH6AZ05190 ↗
Raised
$1.80M
Cash on hand
$1.25M
Cumulative receipts · 4 filings
Top industries
No industry data.
Joseph ChaplikH6AZ01454 ↗
Raised
$417K
Cash on hand
$266K
Cumulative receipts · 2 filings
Top industries
No industry data.
In the news
22 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
22 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles22
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.14
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.22 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.14
Week-over-weekshift −0.22 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 14%
Neutral 86%
14% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets14%
Neutral86%
R-leaning outlets0%
14% of outlets classified by editorial lean
K
Arizona candidate picked centrism over democratic socialism. Will it work with primary voters?
A
How do I find my polling location in Arizona?
N
Arizona Second Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
Y
Pima County Republicans challenges Arizona rules on electioneering at polling sites
K
The 2020 presidential election looms large in Arizona's 2026 governor's race
F
2026 Election: Congressional District 1 GOP Arizona Primary debate
N
Arizona Governor Election 2026: Latest Polls
Y
Arizona swing-district GOP congressional candidates will square off
A
Your voter guide: Arizona primary election 2026
K
Democrats debate for CD-1 as Amish Shah leads polls
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Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 3deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-07-03
Endorsements29 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage22 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks