Democratic primary · July 21, 2026
Arizona house Democratic primary
Field of 0 Democratic candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 10d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Democratic primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
94
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (26.6pp).
Forecast CI width89
26.6pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution89 / 100
Measured26.6pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Democratic primary
primary-struct-v1 · medium confidence · 1 poll + fundamentals1Amish Shah
2Jonathan Treble
3Rick McCartney
4Marlene Galán-Woods
5Mark Robert Gordon
All polls · 1 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22 | HighGround, Inc. | 400 · LV | — |
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing 2026-07-03Jonathan TrebleH6AZ01298 ↗
Raised
$2.48M
Cash on hand
$1.67M
Cumulative receipts · 4 filings
Top industries
No industry data.
Amish ShahH4AZ01194 ↗
Raised
$1.29M
Cash on hand
$707K
Cumulative receipts · 5 filings
Top industries
No industry data.
In the news
22 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
22 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles22
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.14
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.22 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.14
Week-over-weekshift −0.22 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 14%
Neutral 86%
14% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets14%
Neutral86%
R-leaning outlets0%
14% of outlets classified by editorial lean
K
Arizona candidate picked centrism over democratic socialism. Will it work with primary voters?
A
How do I find my polling location in Arizona?
N
Arizona Second Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
Y
Pima County Republicans challenges Arizona rules on electioneering at polling sites
K
The 2020 presidential election looms large in Arizona's 2026 governor's race
F
2026 Election: Congressional District 1 GOP Arizona Primary debate
N
Arizona Governor Election 2026: Latest Polls
Y
Arizona swing-district GOP congressional candidates will square off
A
Your voter guide: Arizona primary election 2026
K
Democrats debate for CD-1 as Amish Shah leads polls
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Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 1deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-07-03
Endorsements29 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage22 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks