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Races · house · 2024 · Washington
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary·Republican primary
house · open seat

Carmela Conroy vs Michael Baumgartner

← Washington houseWashington house →
Safe RR +27.3 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Conroy (D)
99% Baumgartner (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +27.3 · 80% CI R+39.3 → R+15.3
Actual result R+21.3 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+5) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+27.3 with an 80% CI ranging from R+39.3 (10th pctile) to R+15.3 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +27.3
80% CI: R +39.3 → R +15.3 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+21.3
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RMichael Baumgartner0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DCarmela Conroy0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-10-18
Michael BaumgartnerH4WA05234 ↗
Receipts
$1.5M
Disburse
$1.3M
Cash on hand
$191.6K
Debts
$120.1K
Top industries
Computers / electronics$7.1K
Education$6.7K
Insurance$6.6K
Top contributors
CAPITOL VENTURE LLC$8.6K
BASALT CELLARS$7.6K
MICROSOFT$7.1K
SUNSHINE HEALTH FACILITIES, INC$6.7K
WASHINGTON STATE UNIVERSITY$6.7K
Carmela ConroyH4WA05168 ↗
Receipts
$604.6K
Disburse
$591.5K
Cash on hand
$13.1K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Computers / electronics$3.7K
Govt employees$3.6K
Top contributors
TIKOR CONSULTING$6.6K
FORENSIC VIDEO SOLUTIONS$6.6K
KAISER$5.6K
KEVIN MAHER$5.3K
DBA: ANDREW SCHWAM$4.2K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$288.3K
D side
$122.8K · 43%
R side
$165.5K · 57%
Top spender
CONSERVATIVES FOR A…
For / against split
For Conroy $122.8K
For Baumgartner $165.5K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
CONSERVATIVES FOR AMERICAN EXCELLENCE INC.R$165.5K57%for Michael Baumgartner
PROJECT 218D$121.3K42%for Carmela Conroy
TOGETHER FOR PROGRESS 2024D$1.5K1%for Carmela Conroy

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R5
CNalysis
Safe R
Nov 15
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Feb 1
Elections Daily
Safe R
Sep 6
Inside Elections
Safe R
Sep 14
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Feb 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jun 22, 2026Safe Rmodel
May 15, 2026Likely Rmodel
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-10-18
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks