Races · house · 2024 · WA
house · open seat

Carmela Conroy vs Michael Baumgartner

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Lean R — · 0 polls · 0 markets Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Lean R

lean-r

Money in this race

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-10-18
Total IE spending
$453K
For candidates
$453K
Against candidates
$0
Latest filing: 10/18/2024
Source: FEC Schedule E
Michael Baumgartner (R)
$166K for · $0 against
Cash on hand
$192K
Total raised (cycle)
$1.5M
Total spent
$1.3M
Debts
$120K
Source: FEC
Jacquelin Maycumber (R)
$163K for · $0 against
Cash on hand
$0
Total raised (cycle)
$342K
Total spent
$342K
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
Carmela Conroy (D)
$123K for · $0 against
Cash on hand
$13K
Total raised (cycle)
$605K
Total spent
$591K
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
Bernadine Bank (D)
$889 for · $0 against
Cash on hand
$-85
Total raised (cycle)
$350K
Total spent
$350K
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
Ann Marie Danimus (D)
$889 for · $0 against
Cash on hand
$23
Total raised (cycle)
$211K
Total spent
$212K
Debts
$12K
Source: FEC
Brian Dansel (?)
$0 for · $0 against
Cash on hand
$2K
Total raised (cycle)
$113K
Total spent
$116K
Debts
$0
Source: FEC

Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).

last poll — last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
  • 5/6/2026 Lean R via pvi