Public domain
DemocratRunning for WA-5 U.S. House · 2026
Carmela Conroy
Diplomat, prosecutor
Carmela A. Conroy is an American diplomat, politician, and former career Foreign Service officer whose 25-year diplomatic career included postings across Asia, Europe, and the Pacific. She is best known for serving as the U.S. Consul General in Lahore, Pakistan, during the 2011 Raymond Davis incident, a major diplomatic crisis between the United States and Pakistan.
Born 1962Profession Diplomat, prosecutor
In brief
AI · verified vs data · 2026-07-03
Carmela Conroy, a diplomat and former Foreign Service officer with a 25-year career across Asia, Europe, and the Pacific, is running for U.S. House in Washington's 5th district. She served as U.S. Consul General in Lahore, Pakistan. In this Republican-rated race, Conroy trails her opponent by about 6 points in polling, and market data suggests roughly a 30% win probability. She has raised about $300,000.
47%
Polling average
our aggregate
26%
Win probability
market-implied
$301k
Raised this cycle
FEC · committee
Independence scorecard
Computed · FEC money mixWho Conroy's money comes from.
A−
84/100
Independence index
Funding mix leans independent — pac independence is the standout.
1 watch item · small-dollar reliance
Small-dollar reliance46
23% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence100
0% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding91
9% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure100
No significant outside spending in support so far
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
Governing & voting record
—
No legislative record
Roll-call votes and sponsored bills are collected for members of Congress from congress.gov. There is no roll-call source for this office yet.
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
How they vote
—
No party-unity or ideology scores
Party-unity and DW-NOMINATE ideology scores are only available for candidates with a congressional roll-call record.
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Career & history
—
No career timeline
Career history is built from Wikipedia / Wikidata records. No matching public record was found for this candidate.
Public favorability
—
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Donors & money
FEC itemized filings · cycle-to-dateWho funds the campaign.
$301k
Raised
$165k
Spent
$149k
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
23% small (<$200)77% large indiv.0% PAC
91% in-state · 9% out-of-state (itemized)
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-03-31 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING.
Race
The contest Conroy is running in.
WA · HOUSE · 2026safe r
Conroy (D) vs Nate Powell (I)
47%−6.0 Powell53%
Open full race detail →
Related prediction markets
All markets →Live contract prices tied to Conroy and the seat. Prices are ¢-per-share of the YES outcome; context only, never merged into our polling averages.
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT. · PHOTO: U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE · PUBLIC DOMAIN (WIKIMEDIA COMMONS)
Democrat · WA-5 U.S. House
Carmela Conroy
Diplomat, prosecutor
Carmela A. Conroy is an American diplomat, politician, and former career Foreign Service officer whose 25-year diplomatic career included postings across Asia, Europe, and the Pacific. She is best known for serving as the U.S. Consul General in Lahore, Pakistan, during the 2011 Raymond Davis incident, a major diplomatic crisis between the United States and Pakistan.
Where Conroy standsRace →
Conroy 47%Nate Powell 53%
Market · wins
26¢
47%
Poll avg
26%
Win prob
$301k
Raised
In brief
AI · verified vs data · 2026-07-03Carmela Conroy, a diplomat and former Foreign Service officer with a 25-year career across Asia, Europe, and the Pacific, is running for U.S. House in Washington's 5th district. She served as U.S. Consul General in Lahore, Pakistan. In this Republican-rated race, Conroy trails her opponent by about 6 points in polling, and market data suggests roughly a 30% win probability. She has raised about $300,000.
Governing & voting record
—
No legislative record
Roll-call votes and sponsored bills are collected for members of Congress from congress.gov. There is no roll-call source for this office yet.
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
Career & history
—
No career timeline
Career history is built from Wikipedia / Wikidata records. No matching public record was found for this candidate.
Public favorability
—
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Independence scorecard
Who Conroy's money comes from.
A−
84/100
Independence index
Funding mix leans independent — pac independence is the standout.
1 watch item · small-dollar reliance
Small-dollar reliance46
23% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence100
0% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding91
9% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure100
No significant outside spending in support so far
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
How they vote
—
No party-unity or ideology scores
Party-unity and DW-NOMINATE ideology scores are only available for candidates with a congressional roll-call record.
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Donors & money
$301k
Raised
$165k
Spent
$149k
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
23% small (<$200)77% large indiv.0% PAC
91% in-state · 9% out-of-state (itemized)
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-03-31 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING.
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT. · PHOTO: U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE · PUBLIC DOMAIN (WIKIMEDIA COMMONS)