Races · house · 2026 · Washington
house · open seat · provisional matchup
Democrat vs Michael Baumgartner
Likely matchup — the Democratic nominee isn't settled. Shown as a provisional party matchup, not confirmed nominees.
Info · primary pending
The Democratic nominee hasn't been chosen yet
4 Democratic candidates remain. See the democratic primary →
Primary August 4, 2026.
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe R · model 88% R
Polling average rates this race Safe R (R+17.5, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+15.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+31.1 (10th pctile) to D+1.1 (90th pctile), giving R a 88% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 50/100 (medium). Polls and forecasts agree at a moderate level.
CITATIONS · safe-r · low-tipping · uncertainty-medium
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
51
Medium uncertainty
Main driver: wide forecast CI (32.2pp).
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement12
2.4pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution12 / 100
Measured2.4pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Pollster dispersion9
0.9pp cross-pollster spread
Pollster dispersion
Contribution9 / 100
Measured0.9pp cross-pollster spread
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity63
3 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution63 / 100
Measured3 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +15.0
80% CI: R +31.1 → D +1.1 · win prob 12%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 6 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +12.5
80% CI R +14.0 → R +8.6
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +13.7
80% CI R +16.0 → R +11.4
CV MAE 1.80
consensusMarket-implied
R +5.7
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 27¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 20 points less bullish on D than polling. Markets 27% · polls 46%.
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the WA-05 House seat?” | 27¢ | 75¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
All polls · 6 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 24 | Tavern Research+1For · Internal D-aligned | 578 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +6.6decoupled | 47 · 53 |
| May 24 | Tavern Research+1For · Internal D-aligned | 578 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +6.6decoupled | 46 · 54 |
| May 24 | Tavern Research+1For · Internal D-aligned | 578 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +6.6decoupled | 47 |
| May 24 | Tavern Research+1For · Internal D-aligned | 578 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +6.6decoupled | 46 · 54 |
| May 24 | Tavern Research+1For · Internal D-aligned | 578 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +6.6decoupled | 53 |
| Mar 18 | Change Research+2For · Internal D-aligned | 617 · LV | D-LEAN | D +3.718 tracked | +5.7noisy | 14 · 43 |
Endorsements · 15 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet8
Endorsements tracked
Democrat0 · 0%
Michael Baumgartner8 · 100%
Total8
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RMichael Baumgartner8 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials8
Federal 3State 3Local 2
Elected officials · 8
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Shelly Short · state senator from the 7th district (2017–present)
- Brad Knott · NC-13 (2025–present)
- Jim Jordan · OH-04 (2007–present)
- Andrew Engell · state representative from the 7th district (2025–present)
- David Condon · former mayor of Spokane (2011–2019)
- Hunter Abell · state representative from the 7th district (2025–present)
- Nadine Woodward · former mayor of Spokane (2019–2023)
INate Powell7 endorsers
Most notable · Dan Osborn · independent candidate for U.S. Senate in Nebraska in 2024 and former president of Bakery, Confectionery, Tobacco Workers and Grain Millers' International Union
Organizations5
Organizations · 5
- Forward Party
- League of Conservation Voters · Action Fund
- Sailors' Union of the Pacific
- Service Employees International Union · Local 775
- Washington State Labor Council
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Dan Osborn · independent candidate for U.S. Senate in Nebraska in 2024 and former president of Bakery, Confectionery, Tobacco Workers and Grain Millers' International Union
Other1
Other · 1
- UA Plumbers and Pipefitters · Local 598
DDemocrat0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IAnn Marie Danimus0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-07-04Nate PowellH6WA05239 ↗
Receipts
$133.5K
Disburse
$75.3K
Cash on hand
$58.2K
Debts
$10.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Michael BaumgartnerH4WA05234 ↗
Receipts
$1.4M
Disburse
$632.0K
Cash on hand
$972.8K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Carmela Conroy
Receipts
$300.7K
Disburse
$164.6K
Cash on hand
$149.2K
Debts
$14.6K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
David Womack
Receipts
$70.2K
Disburse
$36.3K
Cash on hand
$33.9K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$1.3K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$1.3K · 100%
Top spender
FIRE HOUSE PAC
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIRE HOUSE PAC other · boosts R
| I | $28.9K | 2233% | for Nate Powell |
Editorial ratings · 6 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely R1
Likely R · 1 rater
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Safe R5
Safe R · 5 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- The Economist · Jun 3
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- RealClearPolitics · May 23
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Cook Political Report
Safe RThe Economist
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RRealClearPolitics
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Likely RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
3 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
3 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles3
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.67
Coverage lean (D−R) · first week of data
Net favorability
Score+0.67
Week-over-weekfirst week of data
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 67%
Neutral 33%
67% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets67%
Neutral33%
R-leaning outlets0%
67% of outlets classified by editorial lean
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified6 / 6deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-07-04
Endorsements24 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage3 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks