Public domain
RepublicanRunning for WA-5 U.S. House · 2026
Michael Baumgartner
Michael James Baumgartner is an American politician and former diplomat currently serving as the U.S. representative from Washington's 5th congressional district , a post he has held since 2025. Baumgartner, a Republican , previously served as the 28th Spokane County treasurer and as a member of the Washington State Senate , representing the 6th district from 2011 to 2019 and was his party's nominee in the 2012 election for the United States Senate , unsuccessfully challenging Democratic incumbent Maria Cantwell .
Born 1975 · Pullman, Washington , U.S.
In brief
AI · verified vs data · 2026-07-03
Michael Baumgartner, the current U.S. representative from Washington's 5th congressional district, is seeking re-election in 2026. The former Washington State Senator and Spokane County treasurer is running against Nate Powell. Polling shows them effectively tied, with Baumgartner at about 52% and Powell at about 53%. Polymarket gives Baumgartner roughly a 70% chance of winning. He has raised approximately $1.4 million for the campaign.
52.2%
Polling average
our aggregate
74%
Win probability
market-implied
$1.4M
Raised this cycle
FEC · committee
Independence scorecard
Computed · FEC money mixWho Baumgartner's money comes from.
C+
55/100
Independence index
A mixed funding picture — pac independence is the watch item.
2 watch items · pac independence
Small-dollar reliance22
11% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence16
21% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding81
19% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure100
$1k in outside spending supports the campaign
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
Governing & voting record
What Baumgartner did in office.
MeasureYearAction
To facilitate the responsible development of data centers and related infrastructure, to protect existing rate
Referred to the Committee on Ways and Means, and in addition to the Committee on Energy and Commerce, for a period to be subsequently determined by th
2026
Sponsored
Protect College Sports Act of 2026
Referred to the Committee on the Judiciary, and in addition to the Committees on Energy and Commerce, and Education and Workforce, for a period to be
2026
Sponsored
Expanding the Defense Industrial Base Sales Act
Ordered to be Reported Unfavorably by the Yeas and Nays: 23 - 23.
2026
Sponsored
MATCH Act
Ordered to be Reported in the Nature of a Substitute (Amended) by the Yeas and Nays: 36 - 8.
2026
Sponsored
Workforce Data Quality Initiative Act of 2026
Referred to the House Committee on Education and Workforce.
2026
Sponsored
Foreign Adversary AI Risk Assessment and Diplomacy Act
Ordered to be Reported by the Yeas and Nays: 45 - 0.
2026
Sponsored
Protect American AI Act of 2026
Referred to the Committee on the Judiciary, and in addition to the Committee on Energy and Commerce, for a period to be subsequently determined by the
2026
Sponsored
SPONSORED LEGISLATION VIA CONGRESS.GOV · ENACTED BILLS FIRST, THEN THE MOST RECENT · ROLE SHOWS THE BILL'S LATEST STATUS.
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
How Baumgartner votes
With the party, against it, and where on the spectrum.
Ideological placement · roll-call record
Dem median
GOP median
Baumgartner
← LiberalCenterConservative →
Center-right
Overall lean
78
DW-NOMINATE · 0–100
DW-NOMINATE FIRST-DIMENSION SCORE FROM ROLL-CALL VOTES IN THE 119TH CONGRESS (HOUSE), VIA VOTEVIEW. 0 = MOST LIBERAL, 100 = MOST CONSERVATIVE.
Party unity · 580 roll-calls · 119th Congress (House)
99%voted with Republicans · 1% broke ranks
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Career & history
2011Member of the Washington State Senate
2011–2019
2025United States representative
since 2025
Public favorability
—
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Donors & money
FEC itemized filings · cycle-to-dateWho funds the campaign.
$1.4M
Raised
$632k
Spent
$973k
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
11% small (<$200)68% large indiv.21% PAC
81% in-state · 19% out-of-state (itemized)
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-03-31 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING. SOURCE: FEC ↗
Race
The contest Baumgartner is running in.
WA · HOUSE · 2026safe r
Baumgartner (R) vs Nate Powell (I)
52.2%−0.8 Powell53%
Open full race detail →
Related prediction markets
All markets →Live contract prices tied to Baumgartner and the seat. Prices are ¢-per-share of the YES outcome; context only, never merged into our polling averages.
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT. · PHOTO: IKE HAYMAN, HOUSE CREATIVE SERVICES · PUBLIC DOMAIN (WIKIMEDIA COMMONS)
Republican · WA-5 U.S. House
Michael Baumgartner
Michael James Baumgartner is an American politician and former diplomat currently serving as the U.S. representative from Washington's 5th congressional district , a post he has held since 2025. Baumgartner, a Republican , previously served as the 28th Spokane County treasurer and as a member of the Washington State Senate , representing the 6th district from 2011 to 2019 and was his party's nominee in the 2012 election for the United States Senate , unsuccessfully challenging Democratic incumbent Maria Cantwell .
Where Baumgartner standsRace →
Baumgartner 52.2%Nate Powell 53%
Market · wins
74¢
52.2%
Poll avg
74%
Win prob
$1.4M
Raised
In brief
AI · verified vs data · 2026-07-03Michael Baumgartner, the current U.S. representative from Washington's 5th congressional district, is seeking re-election in 2026. The former Washington State Senator and Spokane County treasurer is running against Nate Powell. Polling shows them effectively tied, with Baumgartner at about 52% and Powell at about 53%. Polymarket gives Baumgartner roughly a 70% chance of winning. He has raised approximately $1.4 million for the campaign.
Governing & voting record
To facilitate the responsible development of data centers and related infrastructure, to protect existing rate
2026 · SPONSORED
Protect College Sports Act of 2026
2026 · SPONSORED
Expanding the Defense Industrial Base Sales Act
2026 · SPONSORED
MATCH Act
2026 · SPONSORED
Workforce Data Quality Initiative Act of 2026
2026 · SPONSORED
Foreign Adversary AI Risk Assessment and Diplomacy Act
2026 · SPONSORED
Protect American AI Act of 2026
2026 · SPONSORED
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
Career & history
2011Member of the Washington State Senate
2011–2019
2025United States representative
since 2025
Public favorability
—
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Independence scorecard
Who Baumgartner's money comes from.
C+
55/100
Independence index
A mixed funding picture — pac independence is the watch item.
2 watch items · pac independence
Small-dollar reliance22
11% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence16
21% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding81
19% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure100
$1k in outside spending supports the campaign
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
How Baumgartner votes
Ideological placement · roll-call record
Dem median
GOP median
Baumgartner
← LiberalCenterConservative →
Center-right
Overall lean
78
DW-NOMINATE · 0–100
DW-NOMINATE FIRST-DIMENSION SCORE FROM ROLL-CALL VOTES IN THE 119TH CONGRESS (HOUSE), VIA VOTEVIEW. 0 = MOST LIBERAL, 100 = MOST CONSERVATIVE.
Party unity · 580 roll-calls · 119th Congress (House)
99%voted with Republicans · 1% broke ranks
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Donors & money
$1.4M
Raised
$632k
Spent
$973k
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
11% small (<$200)68% large indiv.21% PAC
81% in-state · 19% out-of-state (itemized)
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-03-31 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING. SOURCE: FEC ↗
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT. · PHOTO: IKE HAYMAN, HOUSE CREATIVE SERVICES · PUBLIC DOMAIN (WIKIMEDIA COMMONS)