NonpartisanIndependent, data-first coverage of US elections — polls, forecasts, and prediction markets, refreshed daily.Updated daily.What's new ↗·Methodology·Send feedback
Races · house · 2024 · California
</> Embed
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary·Republican primary
house · open seat

Melissa Hurtado vs Chris Mathys

← California houseCalifornia house →
Likely RR +12.5 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
2% Hurtado (D)
98% Mathys (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +12.5 · 80% CI R+24.5 → R+0.5
Actual result R+6.8 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tossup · model 98% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+1) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+12.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+24.5 (10th pctile) to tied (90th pctile), giving R a 98% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +12.5
80% CI: R +24.5 → R +0.5 · win prob 2%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+6.8
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RChris Mathys0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DMelissa Hurtado0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-12-06
Chris MathysH2CA21183 ↗
Receipts
$338.7K
Disburse
$337.4K
Cash on hand
$1.8K
Debts
$520.9K
Top industries
Oil & gas$250
Top contributors
ARCHER AUTO GROUP$2.5K
CHEVRON$250
Melissa HurtadoH4CA22120 ↗
Receipts
$84.5K
Disburse
$84.2K
Cash on hand
$369.73
Debts
$27.8K
Top industries
Oil & gas$3.3K
Top contributors
RICHARD JOHN PITMAN$6.6K
THE WONDERFUL COMPANY$6.6K
KAISER PERMANENTE$5.3K
ENVIRO. SYSTEMS RESEARCH INSTITUTE$3.3K
SIGNAL HILL PETROLEUM$3.3K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$15.4K
D side
$718.18 · 5%
R side
$14.7K · 95%
Top spender
WATERFOWL PAC - FED…
For / against split
For Hurtado $718.18
Against Mathys $0
Against Hurtado $14.7K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
WATERFOWL PAC - FEDERALR$14.7K95%against Melissa Hurtado
INDIVISIBLE PROJECT INC.D$718.185%for Melissa Hurtado

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Tilt D1
Tossup1
Lean R1
CNalysis
Tilt D
Nov 3
The Cook Political Report
Tossup
Nov 15
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean R
Nov 3

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Likely Rmodel
May 15, 2026Lean Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-12-06
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks