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Races · house · 2024 · California
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house · open seat

Derek Marshall vs Jay Obernolte

← California houseCalifornia house →
Safe RR +29.8 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Marshall (D)
99% Obernolte (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +29.8 · 80% CI R+41.8 → R+17.8
Actual result R+20.3 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+8) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+29.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+41.8 (10th pctile) to R+17.8 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +29.8
80% CI: R +41.8 → R +17.8 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+20.3
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RJay Obernolte0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DDerek Marshall0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-04
Jay ObernolteH0CA08135 ↗
Receipts
$1.5M
Disburse
$905.2K
Cash on hand
$997.8K
Debts
$1.1M
Top industries
Internet$17.5K
Computers / electronics$13.2K
Insurance$13.2K
Securities & investment$6.6K
Top contributors
GOOGLE$17.5K
APPLE VALLEY COMMUNICATIONS$13.2K
CHANDI GROUP USA$13.2K
ROUTE 66 SHOOTING$13.2K
ESRI$12.4K
Derek MarshallH2CA08214 ↗
Receipts
$759.3K
Disburse
$770.3K
Cash on hand
$3.2K
Debts
$2.7K
Top industries
Education$13.3K
Top contributors
ROCKET MONEY$9.9K
DILIGENCE HOME CARE$7.0K
VVC$7.0K
UNIVERSITY OF WA BOTHELL$6.7K
HESPERIA USD$6.7K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$28.8K
D side
$26.1K · 91%
R side
$2.7K · 9%
Top spender
EQUALITY CALIFORNIA…
For / against split
For Marshall $4.1K
Against Obernolte $22.0K
For Obernolte $2.7K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
EQUALITY CALIFORNIA VOTESD$22.0K76%against Jay Obernolte
WORKING FAMILIES PARTY PACD$4.0K14%for Derek Marshall
ALLIANCE FOR PHARMACY COMPOUNDING PAC (COMP PAC)R$2.5K9%for Jay Obernolte
REFORM LEADERS PACR$157.291%for Jay Obernolte
COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PACD$104.430%for Derek Marshall

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R3
CNalysis
Safe R
Nov 15
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Feb 1
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Feb 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Safe Rmodel
Jun 22, 2026Likely Rmodel
May 15, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-04
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks