Races · house · 2024 · California
house · open seat
Jim Costa vs Michael Maher
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean D · model 98% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+4) suggests Lean D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+11.8 with an 80% CI ranging from tied (10th pctile) to D+23.8 (90th pctile), giving D a 98% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · lean-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +11.8
80% CI: R +0.2 → D +23.8 · win prob 98%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | D+5.1 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetDJim Costa0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RMichael Maher0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-10-23Jim CostaH4CA20082 ↗
Receipts
$1.7M
Disburse
$1.9M
Cash on hand
$208.9K
Debts
$27.7K
Top industries
Education$11.3K
Education · $11.3K
- San Joaquin Valley College · $11.3K
Individuals $11.3K · PACs $0
Crop production$6.7K
Crop production · $6.7K
- Campos Bros. Farms · $6.7K
Individuals $6.7K · PACs $0
Real estate$6.6K
Real estate · $6.6K
- Oaktree Realty · $6.6K
Individuals $6.6K · PACs $0
Top contributors
CALIFORNIA STRATEGIES$13.9K
FORHAN COMPANY$13.2K
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY COLLEGE$11.3K
CDM$7.3K
CAMPOS BROS. FARMS$6.7K
Michael MaherH2CA22215 ↗
Receipts
$785.0K
Disburse
$753.6K
Cash on hand
$33.7K
Debts
$56.0K
Top industries
Real estate$13.2K
Real estate · $13.2K
- Paynter Realty & Investments INC. · $13.2K
Individuals $13.2K · PACs $0
Crop production$13.2K
Crop production · $13.2K
- Scott Raven Farming · $6.6K
- Ryan Jackson Farms · $6.6K
Individuals $13.2K · PACs $0
Health professionals$6.6K
Health professionals · $6.6K
- Exthera Medical · $6.6K
Individuals $6.6K · PACs $0
Top contributors
PAYNTER REALTY & INVESTMENTS INC.$13.2K
3 RIVERS TRUCKING$13.2K
WEST STAR CONSTRUCTION$10.8K
STREAMLINE IRRIGATION, INC$8.3K
SURROZ BMW$6.6K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$60.4K
D side
$60.3K · 100%
R side
$157.29 · 0%
Top spender
COOPERATIVE OF AMER…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COOPERATIVE OF AMERICAN PHYSICIANS INDEPENDENT EXPENDITURE COMMITTEE super pac · boosts D
| D | $60.0K | 99% | for Jim Costa |
| COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $274.68 | 0% | for Jim Costa |
| REFORM LEADERS PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $157.29 | 0% | for Michael Maher |
| WE VOTE - NOSOTROS VOTAMOS - PPAMM COMMITTEE super pac · boosts D
| D | $1.95 | 0% | for Jim Costa |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D3
Safe D · 3 raters
- CNalysis · Nov 15
- The Cook Political Report · Feb 1
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Feb 22
Likely D1
Likely D · 1 rater
- Elections Daily · Mar 21
CNalysis
Safe DThe Cook Political Report
Safe DElections Daily
Likely DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-10-23
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks