Races · house · 2024 · Arizona

house · open seat

Jonathan Nez vs Eli Crane

← Arizona house Arizona house →

Safe RR +22.8 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Nez (D)
99% Crane (R)
Win probability
Jonathan Nez1% (D)
Eli Crane99% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +22.8
80% CIR+34.8 → R+10.8
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +22.8 · 80% CI R+34.8 → R+10.8
Actual result R+9.0 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+7) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+22.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+34.8 (10th pctile) to R+10.8 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +22.8

80% CI: R +34.8 → R +10.8 · win prob 1%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+9.0
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

REli Crane0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

DJonathan Nez0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-12-23

Eli CraneH2AZ01354 ↗

Receipts

$8.6M

Disburse

$8.3M

Cash on hand

$317.4K

Debts

$202.8K

Top industries

Real estate$23.9K

Education$11.0K

Health professionals$6.6K

Top contributors

REITRED$17.3K

SITE DEVELOPMENT$16.4K

AUTISM ACADEMY$11.0K

SAULSBURY INDUSTRIES$9.9K

MARWEST$9.0K

Jonathan NezH4AZ02184 ↗

Receipts

$5.5M

Disburse

$5.5M

Cash on hand

$65.2K

Debts

Top industries

Health professionals$13.2K

Lawyers / law firms$7.8K

Top contributors

NAVAJO NATION$12.0K

UNDERHILL LAW, PC$7.8K

MYSELF$6.8K

MASS GENERAL HOSPITAL$6.6K

PHYSICIANS COMMITTEE FOR RESPONSIBLE M$6.6K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$1.3M

D side

$14.5K · 1%

R side

$1.2M · 99%

Top spender

CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTION

For / against split

For Nez $6.3K

Against Crane $8.2K

Against Nez $102.3K

For Crane $1.1M

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTION	R	$430.2K	34%	for Eli Crane
SEAL PAC SUPPORTING ELECTING AMERICAN LEADERS PAC	R	$343.0K	27%	for Eli Crane
HOUSE FREEDOM ACTION	R	$267.0K	21%	for Eli Crane
PROTECT FREEDOM POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	R	$120.0K	10%	for Eli Crane
HOUSE FREEDOM FUND	R	$45.1K	4%	for Eli Crane
WESTERN STATES REGIONAL COUNCIL OF CARPENTERS LEGISLATIVE IMPROVEMENT CMTE UNITED BROTHERHOOD OF CARPENTERS & JOINERS OF AMERICA	D	$5.6K	0%	for Jonathan Nez
DEMOCRATIC MESSAGING PROJECT	D	$720	0%	for Jonathan Nez
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION	D	$10	0%	for Jonathan Nez

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Likely R5

Safe R1

CNalysis

Likely R

Nov 15

The Cook Political Report

Likely R

Oct 21

Decision Desk HQ

Safe R

Oct 21

Elections Daily

Likely R

Oct 23

Inside Elections

Likely R

Sep 11

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Likely R

Oct 23

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jun 22, 2026Safe Rmodel

May 11, 2026Likely Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-12-23

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks