Races · house · 2022 · New Mexico

house · open seat

Gabe Vasquez vs Yvette Herrell

← New Mexico house New Mexico house →

TossupR +0.5 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
47% Vasquez (D)
53% Herrell (R)
Win probability
Gabe Vasquez47% (D)
Yvette Herrell53% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +0.5
80% CIR+12.5 → D+11.5
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +0.5 · 80% CI R+12.5 → D+11.5
Actual result D+0.7 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Tossup · model 53% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+0) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts tied with an 80% CI ranging from R+12.5 (10th pctile) to D+11.5 (90th pctile), giving R a 53% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +0.5

80% CI: R +12.5 → D +11.5 · win prob 47%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+0.7
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

RYvette Herrell0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

DGabe Vasquez0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-28

Yvette HerrellH8NM02156 ↗

Receipts

$4.4M

Disburse

$4.4M

Cash on hand

$107.1K

Debts

Top industries

Govt employees$10.8K

Restaurants & drinking$10.8K

Oil & gas$8.8K

Top contributors

AMERICAN INDIAN TRIBE$32.1K

SAULSBURY INDUSTRIES$23.2K

MATADOR RESOURCES$13.9K

ONYX PACKAGING CORPORATION$11.6K

STATE OF NM$10.8K

Gabe VasquezH2NM02191 ↗

Receipts

$3.7M

Disburse

$3.7M

Cash on hand

$22.8K

Debts

Top industries

Education$29.1K

Govt employees$7.1K

Top contributors

UNIVERSITY OF NEW MEXICO$20.9K

WESTERN CONSERVATION FOUNDATION$15.8K

GREYLOCK PARTNERS$8.7K

ALSOP LOUIE PARTNERS$8.7K

NEW MEXICO STATE UNIVERSITY$8.2K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$28.8M

D side

$27.2M · 94%

R side

$1.6M · 6%

Top spender

HOUSE MAJORITY PAC

For / against split

For Vasquez $514.8K

Against Herrell $26.7M

Against Vasquez $5.8K

For Herrell $1.6M

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC	D	$18.4M	64%	against Yvette Herrell
DCCC	D	$7.9M	27%	against Yvette Herrell
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	R	$896.7K	3%	for Yvette Herrell
WFP NATIONAL PAC	D	$486.8K	2%	for Gabe Vasquez
AMERICAN LEADERSHIP PAC	R	$352.5K	1%	for Yvette Herrell
TOGETHER MOVING MOUNTAINS NEW MEXICO	D	$292.8K	1%	against Yvette Herrell
SOMOS ACCION	D	$23.1K	0%	for Gabe Vasquez
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND	R	$5.8K	0%	against Gabe Vasquez
BLUE CD2 NEW MEXICO USA	D	$4.8K	0%	for Gabe Vasquez
ENVIRONMENT AMERICA ACTION FUND	D	$154.6	0%	for Gabe Vasquez

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Tossup3

Lean R1

Likely R2

The Cook Political Report

Tossup

Apr 26

DDHQ

Likely R

Oct 31

The Economist

Tossup

Sep 27

538

Likely R

Oct 31

Inside Elections

Tossup

Apr 21

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Lean R

Oct 25

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jul 1, 2026Tossupmodel

May 15, 2026Lean Rmodel

May 11, 2026Tilt Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-28

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks