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Races · house · 2022 · New Mexico
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary·Republican primary
house · open seat

Teresa Leger Fernandez vs Alexis Martinez Johnson

← New Mexico houseNevada house →
Likely DD +9.8 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
95% Fernandez (D)
5% Johnson (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +9.8 · 80% CI R+2.2 → D+21.8
Actual result D+16.4 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt D · model 95% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+3) suggests Tilt D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+9.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+2.2 (10th pctile) to D+21.8 (90th pctile), giving D a 95% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +9.8
80% CI: R +2.2 → D +21.8 · win prob 95%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+16.4
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DTeresa Leger Fernandez0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RAlexis Martinez Johnson0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-28
Teresa Leger FernandezH0NM03102 ↗
Receipts
$3.1M
Disburse
$3.3M
Cash on hand
$34.1K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$11.6K
Education$6.0K
Computers / electronics$5.8K
Top contributors
UNM$12.5K
ALSOP LOUIE PARTNERS$11.6K
CULTURAL PRODUCTIONS$9.2K
NA$7.0K
STANFORD UNIVERSITY$6.0K
Alexis Martinez JohnsonH0NM03201 ↗
No FEC committee filing yet.
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$112.9K
D side
$21.9K · 19%
R side
$91.0K · 81%
Top spender
NEW MEXICANS FOR PR…
For / against split
For Fernandez $21.9K
Against Johnson $8.68
Against Fernandez $91.0K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
NEW MEXICANS FOR PROSPERITYR$91.0K81%against Teresa Leger Fernandez
SOMOS ACCIOND$21.8K19%for Teresa Leger Fernandez
ENVIRONMENT AMERICA ACTION FUNDD$154.60%for Teresa Leger Fernandez
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$8.680%against Alexis Martinez Johnson

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D3
Likely D3
The Cook Political Report
Likely D
Apr 26
DDHQ
Likely D
Jul 19
The Economist
Safe D
Nov 6
538
Safe D
Sep 29
Inside Elections
Safe D
Aug 24
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely D
Apr 26

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 15, 2026Likely Dmodel
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-28
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks