Races · house · 2022 · Iowa

house · open seat

Liz Mathis vs Ashley Hinson

← Iowa house Iowa house →

Likely RR +11.0 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
3% Mathis (D)
97% Hinson (R)
Win probability
Liz Mathis3% (D)
Ashley Hinson97% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +11.0
80% CIR+23.0 → D+1.0
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +11.0 · 80% CI R+23.0 → D+1.0
Actual result R+8.3 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean R · model 97% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+4) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+11.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+23.0 (10th pctile) to D+1.0 (90th pctile), giving R a 97% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +11.0

80% CI: R +23.0 → D +1.0 · win prob 3%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+8.3
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

RAshley Hinson0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

DLiz Mathis0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-08

Ashley HinsonH0IA01174 ↗

Receipts

$7.2M

Disburse

$7.2M

Cash on hand

$68.4K

Debts

Top industries

TV / movies / music$11.6K

Education$11.6K

Top contributors

MCCOY GROUP$16.6K

INFORMATION REQUESTED PER BEST EFFORTS$15.6K

UNIVERSAL INDUSTRIES INC$11.6K

STEPHENS INC.$11.6K

INVESTMENTS LIMITED$11.6K

Liz MathisH2IA01089 ↗

Receipts

$4.2M

Disburse

$4.2M

Cash on hand

$9.6K

Debts

Top industries

Education$48.0K

Lawyers / law firms$13.6K

Computers / electronics$11.6K

Health professionals$9.1K

Real estate$7.4K

Top contributors

UNIVERSITY OF IOWA$48.0K

RSH LEGAL$13.6K

MICROSOFT$11.6K

BLUEBIRD DINER$10.8K

SHUTTLEWORTH AND INGERSOLL$10.2K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$6.3M

D side

$500 · 0%

R side

$6.3M · 100%

Top spender

CONGRESSIONAL LEADE…

For / against split

For Mathis $500

Against Mathis $2.0M

For Hinson $4.3M

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND	R	$2.3M	37%	against Liz Mathis
OPPORTUNITY MATTERS FUND, INC.	R	$2.2M	35%	for Ashley Hinson
AMERICAN LEADERSHIP PAC	R	$501.9K	8%	for Ashley Hinson
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	R	$497.3K	8%	for Ashley Hinson
AMERICAN COLLEGE OF RADIOLOGY ASSOCIATION PAC	R	$435.2K	7%	for Ashley Hinson
WOMEN SPEAK OUT PAC	R	$175.2K	3%	against Liz Mathis
PROTECT THE VOTE	D	$500	0%	for Liz Mathis

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Tilt R1

Lean R2

Likely R2

Safe R1

The Cook Political Report

Lean R

Oct 24

DDHQ

Safe R

Sep 5

The Economist

Lean R

Sep 27

FiveThirtyEight

Likely R

Sep 6

Inside Elections

Tilt R

Oct 20

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Likely R

Sep 6

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Likely Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-08

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks